Minnesota reverses trend of losing residents to other states
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Anthony Schmidt had already decided to move back to Minnesota after six years of living in Florida when the ICE surge roiled his hometown.
- What he saw— people helping their neighbors — only further validated Schmidt's decision and increased his pride in being a Minnesotan, he told Axios.
Why it matters: After seven consecutive years of Minnesota losing more people to other states than it gained, the trend reversed in 2025, according to new U.S. Census data.
By the numbers: Between July 1, 2024, and July 1, 2025, 8,300 more people moved to Minnesota from other states than left for other states, according to the U.S. Census.
What they're saying: "I'm cautiously optimistic about what it means. I like to see two, three, four years before I know if we're going back to a pattern like we saw in the 1990s," state demographer Susan Brower told the Star Tribune.
Reality check: While a net domestic migration of 8,300 people is a good sign, it doesn't come close to making up for the net loss of 43,853 people from 2021 through 2023, when there was national gravitation to low-tax, warm-weather states.
- Minnesota has always lost retirees to Florida, Arizona and other warm places, but demographers have been troubled by recent data showing that 20-somethings weren't coming back from out-of-state college as much as they used to, according to a state report from 2024.
The big picture: Minnesota's population has continued to increase due to births outpacing deaths and because of international immigration.
- President Trump's crackdown contributed to one of the slowest years for international immigration to Minnesota since at least 2020, though he was only president for half of the most recent census period.
What we're watching: What this winter's ICE surge and local resistance mean for both international and domestic migration going forward.
- The metro's once-thriving immigrant business corridors have been dealt a major blow, and it remains to be seen how long it will take for them to recover.
- Images of a hollowed-out Lake Street hurt the city's brand for years following the murder of George Floyd.
Schmidt is the founder and CEO of Tarmac, a software company with 350 employees across the globe. His and his wife's decision to move back was driven by better schools for their two kids, health care and closer proximity to his customers.
- His vice president of engineering is also moving back to Minnesota from Colorado, for similar reasons, he said.
The bottom line: Schmidt doesn't see what's happened here this winter as being bad for Minnesota's brand.
- "I see it as a positive thing that the community is fighting back, and I think it's going to attract more of the right people," he said.