Summer 2024 outlook: Warm, but maybe not so dry

Driving the news: The National Weather Service released its summer outlook last week. Most of the state is leaning toward a warmer-than-normal June-August, but some of it could just as likely be cooler than normal, per the NWS.

• The outlook also suggests a coin-flip likelihood of getting normal amounts of precipitation — far better than our recent dry spell.

State of play: Solid rain this spring has erased the drought that lasted from last summer into the warm and dry winter.

• Two waves of rain are heading our way Friday through Sunday and could bring close to 1.5 inches to the Twin Cities, according to models shared by MPR News.
• Warmer air arrives Tuesday, with forecasts calling for 60s and 70s much of next week.

Zoom out: Despite a shift to a cooler La Niña cycle, it's highly likely that much of the U.S. will still continue to be hotter than usual this summer, writes Axios' Andrew Freedman.

What they're saying: Michelle L'Heureux of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center told Axios that other climate trends — including human-caused climate change — may outrank the seesaw from El Niño to La Niña as the dominant driver of U.S. summer temperature anomalies.

What we're watching: Canadian wildfires, which caused awful air pollution in Minnesota last summer. There's an above-average risk of another burning summer north of the border, according to MPR News.