Federal science cuts could threaten California wildfire forecasts

More cuts to federal science programs could threaten weather forecasts crucial to predicting wildfire behavior.

Why it matters: Much of the West saw a dry, warm winter. In California, extreme swings between wet storms and prolonged dry spells have become increasingly common — an early sign that fire risk could be elevated this summer.

Zoom in: Cal Fire has warned that the state is facing an early and prolonged peak fire season, spurred by the unusual March heat wave.

• Forecasters say El Niño-driven storms can be a double-edged sword. While they ease drought conditions, they can also spur brush growth that later becomes tinder during hot, dry summers.
• While peak fire season typically runs from June through October, this year's activity has been off to an early start with roughly half a dozen fires in central and Southern California alone burning more than 1,000 acres in May.

Between the lines: Forecasting work depends on federal labs like National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and CIRES, which have already faced Trump administration funding cuts and proposed reductions.

• Researchers operate as an "ecosystem," CIRES associate director Jen Kay told Axios. Losing tools like NCAR's supercomputing center would affect projects at multiple labs, she said.

What they're saying: "All of that infrastructure comes from the federal government," Kay added. "If you cut NOAA by 50%, you cut the quality of the forecast you get on your phone by 50%."

Reality check: One or two fires often account for roughly 90% of the acreage burned in a season, making rapid fire growth predictions more important than predicting the number of fire starts, per Janice Coen of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).

What's next: Uncertainty is already affecting researchers' work. "You don't know what projects will continue, you don't know what people will be there," Kay said.