Bay Area Iranian Americans weigh hope and fear as war continues
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For some Iranian Americans in the Bay Area, the Iran war now entering its third week has brought a mix of cautious optimism and anxiety for what could come next back home.
The big picture: Opinions will inevitably vary within any diaspora, but local community members who spoke with Axios said they're hopeful the U.S. intervention will be an opportunity to usher in a new age of democracy for their homeland, even as others worry the U.S. military's history of regime change in the region could undermine meaningful reform.
What they're saying: "People welcome any opportunity that forces this regime to fall," Saman Setoodeh, who lives in Pacifica, told Axios. "They tried protests. They tried ... to call for reform, and the response to all these from the government was consistent in just brutally suppressing."
- For San Francisco resident Sepehr Imani, the emotions he's experienced are similar to how he reacted to hearing that his toddler needs heart surgery: "I have to trust this doctor," he told Axios. "These doctors right now are America, Israel. ... There is no one else."
- "I always thought I could never go back, but now there is hope," San José-based Ghazaleh Shahani said. "I can go visit my birth country, show my daughter where I was born and grew up."
Professor Persis Karim, who formerly led San Francisco State University's Center for Iranian Diaspora Studies, told Axios the Iranian American community has been divided over the war, reflecting decades of trauma tied to the 1979 Revolution, human rights abuses experienced under the Islamic Republic and fears about the consequences of war.
- Many people "are so enraged, desperate and upset about the abuses of this regime that they feel anything is better," Karim said. "But … having watched the U.S. intervene in the Middle East over and over again, assassinating political leaders and not giving people the opportunity to determine their own future is a dangerous prospect."
- She acknowledged differences in opinion but said it's false to suggest that if you don't support this war, you're "pro-regime."
Zoom in: While they feel fear for relatives' wellbeing and want the war to be as short as possible, Shahani told Axios that "it can't get worse" than what they've already endured, especially after thousands of protesters were killed during a crackdown in January.
- "This is a window of opportunity to be able to change the regime and ... have a secular government with democracy [and] human rights for everyone, every ethnicity, every religion," she added.
Between the lines: Reza Pahlavi, the exiled former crown prince of Iran, has drawn support as a potential transitional leader if the Islamic Republic falls, according to Imani, Shahani and Setoodeh.
- Some local Iranian Americans back other opposition movements, according to Hamid Azimi of the Iranian American Community of Northern California.
Yes, but: Those interviewed by Axios said the U.S. should not be involved in choosing Iran's next leader and that Iranians should make that call.
What's next: Local community members have held several rallies in San Francisco and other Bay Area cities since the war began and plan to continue doing so.
- "The people in Iran, they gave their lives," Shahani said. "What we can do here is just be their voice. ... It's the least we can do."