San Francisco voter turnout is at 25% ahead of Election Day

• The 134,303 ballots returned so far trails the 204,244 cast by this point in 2020, which set turnout records.

Why it matters: Voter turnout overall, and within specific demographic groups, can determine election outcomes.

By the numbers: In San Francisco — where Mayor London Breed is seeking reelection in a crowded race — 25% of voters have cast their ballots, with 68% of those coming from Democrats, 9% from Republicans and 24% from independents.

• Of those ballots, 53% came from white voters, 11% came from Latinos, 33% from Asians and 5% from Black voters.
• The ballots returned so far are disproportionately from older folks, with 38% from people over 65, and another 26% from those between 50 and 64.
• Men (51%) slightly outpace women (45%) in the share of ballots cast so far.

The big picture: 50 million Americans have already voted, about half as many at the same time in 2020.

Yes, but: PDI cautions against using its early vote tracker to forecast election results.

• Low early voting returns within a group may simply indicate they're more likely to vote on Election Day.