SFUSD braces for looming "enrollment cliff"
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As the number of U.S. high school graduates is expected to peak in the next two years and then decline for years to come, San Francisco's public school system is among the districts nationwide facing challenges.
Why it matters: Enrollment declines have put the San Francisco Unified School District (SFUSD) in a financial conundrum — one that has led the district to consider staffing cuts and move forward with its school closure plan.
Driving the news: Due to a birth rate drop after the 2008 recession, schools are planning for a decade-long dry spell that's being referred to as the enrollment or demographic cliff.
By the numbers: The U.S. is expected to reach "peak high school graduate" in 2025 with 3.9 million young adults, according to WICHE.
- By 2037, WICHE projects there'll be about 3.5 million high school graduates — a 10.7% decrease.
Zoom in: SFUSD's enrollment has decreased by more than 4,000 students since the 2012-13 school year, according to the district.
- By 2032, it expects to lose an additional 4,600 students due to declining birth rates and other demographic trends.
What they're saying: SFUSD has resisted closing schools in the past, but that's resulted in them getting emptier, the district wrote on its website.
- "By having fewer schools, we can concentrate our resources on enhancing educational programs, teacher support, and student services," according to the district's site.
Where it stands: Since the pandemic, "there has not been a rebound in public school enrollment," Thomas Dee, an economist and professor at Stanford's Graduate School of Education, tells Axios.
- He documented an enrollment decline of 1.1 million students — or 2% — nationally in K-12 public schools in the fall of 2021, the beginning of the first full school year after the onset of the pandemic.
- A third of that was in kindergarten alone — which Dee refers to as "enrollment flight."
- "Parents were confronted with putting a kindergartener or first-grade student in front of the laptop all day," Dee says.
- The continued rise of homeschooling and chronic absenteeism are playing a role too.
Zoom out: Other cities with enrollment declines include Seattle, New York, Los Angeles and Philadelphia.
What's next: SFUSD's superintendent is expected to make recommendations for school closures, relocations and mergers this fall.