San Diego could be too hot to host future Olympic Games
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The majority of the world will be too hot to host the Summer Olympics by 2050, including San Diego and California .
Why it matters: Extreme heat is the most widespread climate risk in San Diego, and it'll get worse over the next 30 years, which limits the number of local venues suitable for major outdoor sporting events.
By the numbers: An Axios analysis of CarbonPlan data finds that, in 2050, 60% of locations globally will experience Wet Bulb Globe Temperatures above 82°F, the American College of Sports Medicine's recommended threshold for canceling outdoor, continuous activity to avoid heat illness.
- CarbonPlan's models estimate that 62% of weather stations in California would experience temperatures above the "cancel activity" level in 2050, compared to 56% of stations in 2020.
How it works: Wet Bulb Globe Temperature is a metric that takes into account air temperature, humidity, solar radiation and wind to assess the risk of heat illness. It is widely used to determine safe temperatures for physical activity.
Reality check: Many games at the professional and collegiate level aren't canceled when temperatures exceed that recommended threshold or even during dangerous heat waves.
- In 2022, San Diego State University football played its home opener at Snapdragon Stadium with triple digit temperatures that left hundreds needing heat-related medical attention.
Zoom in: Most of the areas in San Diego County are already identified as "high risk," and three weather stations show temperatures meeting the "cancel activity" threshold by 2050.
- There were dozens of stations with "high risk" and "cancel activity" temperature levels across Los Angeles (the site of the 2028 Olympics), Orange, Riverside and Imperial counties in 2020 and 2050.
Flashback: San Diego was a contender to host the 2024 Olympic Games – which would've required the city to have at least 26 venues for Olympic events, plus the infrastructure and transportation to support the influx of tourists – but it didn't make the short list.
What we're watching: The International Olympics Committee is already planning to implement heat protocols for the 2028 Summer Games.
- The U.S. also will be a host site for the 2026 FIFA World Cup with games in L.A. and San Francisco.
Go deeper: Read the full interactive project about how extreme heat is impacting the Olympics.