Democrats reverse GOP gains in Latino-majority Texas counties
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Gina Hinojosa and James Talarico at a campaign event in San Antonio on Sunday. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
Democrats on Tuesday reversed Republican advances in Latino-majority communities that helped fuel President Trump's return to the White House.
Why it matters: Republicans hoped Trump's 2024 breakthrough with Latino voters would signal a lasting political realignment. But Tuesday's results raise questions about the durability of those gains heading into 2028.
Catch up quick: Democrats captured the Texas governorship and a U.S. Senate seat, ending a decades long statewide losing streak.
By the numbers: A poll of Latino voters presented by UnidosUS, a nonpartisan Latino civil rights and advocacy organization, and conducted by BSP Research, found that James Talarico led Ken Paxton 65% to 31% among Latino voters statewide. In the Rio Grande Valley, Talarico led 74% to 24%.
- BSP Research surveyed 844 Texas Latino voters, including 176 in the Rio Grande Valley, from Oct. 20 to Nov. 3. The statewide sample had a margin of error of ±3.4 percentage points.
Zoom in: The Democratic gains extended beyond the Rio Grande Valley, reaching Latino-heavy counties across south central, coastal and West Texas, according to a comparison of New York Times unofficial election results for gubernatorial and Senate races.
- Jim Wells and Nueces counties, in the Coastal Bend, voted Republican in the 2024 presidential election but backed Democrats in both statewide races Tuesday.
- El Paso and Bexar counties were solidly blue two years ago. This year, Talarico won by 48 points and Hinojosa by 42 in El Paso, compared with Harris' 15-point margin in 2024. In Bexar, Talarico won by 35 points and Hinojosa by 31, compared with Harris' 10-point margin.
Yes, but: The results weren't uniform across candidates.
- In West Texas' Reeves County, Talarico won by 8 points, while Republican Gov. Greg Abbott carried the county by 4 points. Trump had won there by 37 points in 2024.
Zoom out: The reversal was also evident along the South Texas border, where Republicans celebrated historic gains two years ago.
- Talarico led by 38 points in Cameron County, 46 in Hidalgo County and 47 in Webb County in unofficial returns. Trump narrowly carried all three counties in 2024.
Between the lines: The results suggest Republicans' recent gains in Latino-heavy communities may be less durable than previously thought, though the election alone doesn't establish why voters shifted.
- "Our voters vote on candidates, positions, policies, and results, not ideology or party loyalty," UnidosUS president and CEO Janet Murguía said during a Wednesday briefing.
Reality check: Latino voters' shift toward Democrats may reflect frustration with Trump rather than renewed party loyalty.
- Democrats' 16-point advantage in Latino party identification remains well below their 33-point lead in 2018, according to NBC.
The bottom line: Trump's Latino breakthrough reshaped politics in 2024. Two years later, Texas voters reminded both parties that winning their support once doesn't mean keeping it.