Dip in immigration is slowing San Antonio's growth
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The San Antonio-New Braunfels area is continuing to grow in population, albeit more slowly now amid a drop in immigration, recent U.S. Census Bureau data shows.
Why it matters: International migration is a significant contributor to San Antonio's growth, Lloyd Potter, the Texas State Demographer based at UT San Antonio, tells Axios.
- The data offers the best look yet at how tighter immigration enforcement under the Trump administration is affecting America's demographic makeup.
The big picture: International migration fell in 9 out of 10 U.S. counties from July 1, 2024, to June 30, 2025, compared with the prior period, per the Census Bureau.
- That drop is hitting large metros hardest because when people move from abroad, they tend to settle in bigger cities. That's especially true of San Antonio as it's a large city close to the U.S.-Mexico border, Potter says.
- These cities lose people who move to other parts of the country via domestic migration, Census Bureau demographer George Hayward said in a statement.
Zoom in: The San Antonio metro gained more than 38,000 residents from July 1, 2024, to July 1, 2025, the latest census data shows. That's the ninth-highest growth in the country in that time in raw numbers.
- That includes more than 21,000 newcomers to Bexar County and more than 7,600 to Comal County.
Yes, but: It's a slowdown from the more than 47,000 new residents the area added in the same period from 2023 to 2024. The year before that, the San Antonio area drew about 48,000 new metro residents.
What they're saying: "I'm fairly certain we'll see it decline even more this coming year," Potter says of the San Antonio metro's growth, given that the latest figures captured only a half-year of increased immigration enforcement.
State of play: Growth in San Antonio's suburban counties like Comal, home to New Braunfels, is more dependent on domestic migration than international. Its boom might not take as much of a hit from stricter immigration enforcement, Potter says.
- Comal County is a big factor in the San Antonio metro's overall growth, ensuring the region continues to grow.
The bottom line: San Antonio is still a magnet for migration, but the forces driving its growth are shifting.