Avian flu straining Thanksgiving turkey supply — but H-E-B says it's ready

Driving the news: Nearly 514,000 turkeys have been affected by fresh bird flu outbreaks in October, per USDA data. The National Turkey Federation tells Axios there will be enough turkeys for Thanksgiving, though supply could tighten for fresh or specific-size birds if cases rise in the coming weeks.

By the numbers: About 195 million turkeys were raised this year — down 3% from 2024 and 36% from the 1996 peak. The USDA expects production to fall 5% to 4.8 billion pounds, with wholesale prices averaging $1.32 a pound, the lowest output in four decades.

Zoom in: H-E-B tells Axios its turkey supply is strong and prices are holding steady from last year.

• Meanwhile, Bill Miller Bar-B-Q, a go-to for family-style Thanksgiving meals, has been out of turkey in recent weeks.

What they're saying: National Turkey Federation president Leslee Oden says producers have been "working around the clock" amid avian flu and metapneumovirus challenges but remain confident in frozen supply.

• While bird flu cases are up, it's not affecting overall availability, though shoppers should plan ahead for specific sizes or types.
• A Butterball spokesperson said the brand expects plenty of options despite the "ever-evolving, industrywide challenge."