Trump's tariffs could cost Texas billions and impact San Antonio's trade
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Texas stands to lose $47.1 billion — the most of any state — if President Trump's tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico take effect, along with those already imposed on China.
Why it matters: Tariffs may be a political tool for extracting concessions from targeted countries, but they also drive up costs for everyday Americans — especially in San Antonio, whose largest trading partner is Mexico.
Catch up quick: Trump on Saturday imposed tariffs of 25% on Mexican and Canadian goods and 10% on Canadian energy imports, and he issued new 10% tariffs on Chinese imports.
- On Monday, he delayed his planned Mexico and Canada tariffs for 30 days after striking border security deals with both countries.
Zoom in: The looming tariffs could cost Americans $1,200 a year, U.S. Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-San Antonio) told reporters Monday alongside Mayor Ron Nirenberg.
- "San Antonio is made up of humble, hardworking people who don't ask for much from their government," Castro said.
- "Most of the people that we represent don't have $1,200 extra to spare. For many, these tariffs will mean less food on the table, tighter budgets and less freedom to dream big about the things they want to pursue in life."
By the numbers: San Antonio exported $383 million to and imported $35.4 million in goods from Mexico in 2023, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity.
The other side: Texas Gov. Greg Abbott told the Houston Chronicle he's not worried about the tariffs, calling them part of Trump's negotiation tactics to secure stronger border cooperation.
- He said he has enough influence with Trump to help shape tariff policies, citing his past role in relaying industry concerns during Trump's first term, when tariffs hit the agriculture sector especially hard.
Zoom out: The tariffs as issued Saturday would have an estimated $232.7 billion national impact, per research from Trade Partnership Worldwide based on trade from January to November 2024.
- Texas' burden would be followed by California ($32.6 billion) and Michigan ($27.8 billion).
How it works: The estimates are based on census data for foreign imports and reflect "the composition of current trade based on existing company-to-company relationships," Trade Partnership Worldwide president Daniel S. Anthony tells Axios.
Caveat: Tariffs may lead to less trade overall, Anthony notes — meaning past data isn't necessarily indicative of future tariff effects.