The economy is drowning San Antonio's swimming pools
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The pool boom is over, according to data from a Louisiana-based pool equipment distributor, and macroeconomic forces are largely to blame.
Why it matters: The factors cooling the broader economy are also drowning the pool business.
The big picture: Just 60,000 residential in-ground pools will be constructed nationwide this year, research firm Pkdata estimates — half as many as in 2021.
Zoom in: The city of San Antonio has issued 232 pool-related permits this year as of June 30, per a review of city data by Axios.
- That's down from 415 permits through June 30 in 2021.
- Across all of 2021, San Antonio issued 748 pool permits, compared to 520 in 2023.
Zoom out: Normally, new home construction is correlated with new pool construction. That's not the case anymore.
- "New home construction grew versus a decline in new pool construction," Pool Corp., which distributes pool supplies and equipment in Texas and elsewhere, noted in its annual report (though they added this creates "more available backyards for swimming pools when economic conditions stabilize.")
Where it stands: Higher-end pools with fancy waterfalls or decorative tiling are selling fine. It's demand for low-end pools that is slowing.
- One reason: High-end pool buyers tend to pay in cash. Lower-end pools are more likely to be financed and high interest rates have made that less palatable.
- Pools are also more expensive. The average pool cost went from roughly $40,000 pre-pandemic to north of $65,000, estimates Garik Shmois, an analyst at Loop Capital Markets.
Between the lines: The pandemic caused a one-off surge in pool demand when stuck-at-home residents leaned into upgrades as they were forced to forgo vacations.
- "We are seeing record travel. That shows people are choosing to go back to summer vacations, spending their discretionary budgets on activities as opposed to reinvesting in their backyards," Shmois says.