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Axios Latino

Advocacy groups in South Florida are closely monitoring the fallout from Venezuela's disputed election, hopeful that the Maduro regime will fall — but ready for a fresh influx of immigrants as the unrest stretches on.

Why it matters: Venezuelans have taken to the streets in recent days to protest the election results, a reality that some analysts say could worsen the country's crisis and push more people to leave.

More than 40% of Venezuelans polled in the past few months said they'd consider emigrating if Maduro stayed in power.

Nevertheless, advocates say hope is pushing people to keep fighting.

What they're saying: "Obviously, if [President Nicolás] Maduro stays in power, there's going to be a new exodus. That's a fact," Adelys Ferro, Venezuelan American Caucus executive director, told Axios Miami.

But before diving into what that means for Miami and the United States, she noted, "it's important to emphasize that right now, nobody is leaving."

"There's still so much hope that [the opposition] has evidence to prove that Maduro committed the biggest election fraud" in decades, she said.

Between the lines: Advocates are discussing the possibility of a Venezuelan  exodus to Florida, Ana Sofia Peláez, executive director of Miami Freedom Project, told Axios.

"It's been happening [because] we've seen such a large influx of migrants from [countries including] Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela" to the state in recent years, she said.

Catch up quick: On Monday, without sharing precise vote count data, Venezuelan electoral commission CNE certified Maduro as the winner over opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia.

The CNE is run by members of the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV), which has long been accused of election interference.

PSUV's policies are widely known as Chavismo, after the late Hugo Chávez.

The opposition says its monitors sent to voting sites to check the count saw tallies that indicated González Urrutia won.

What we're watching: Elected officials nationally and locally are pressuring the CNE to release voting results.

The bottom line: Despite the current "tense waiting game," organizations like Ferro's says they're ready to immediately start coordinating efforts with border organizations should the results remain.

They also plan to launch social media campaigns to reach and educate Venezuelans trying to leave the country about what to expect when they reach a border.

"I know first hand many families are considering [leaving] if nothing changes," she said. "But we know we have legal paths to bring them here and we are trying to educate Venezuelans about that."

South Florida braces for influx of Venezuelan migrants amid election crisis

Venezuela's election crisis could lead to a new wave of migration to the U.S.

Members of the National Guard riot squad ride away from teargas at Chacao neighbourhood as opponents of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro take part in a demonstration, in Caracas on July 30, 2024. Security forces fired tear gas and rubber bullets at protesters and an NGO said 11 people have been k

Venezuelan National Guard members ride to a protest this week. Photo: Juan Calero/AFP via Getty Images

Florida

Advocacy groups in South Florida are closely monitoring the fallout from Venezuela&#x27;s disputed election, hopeful that the Maduro regime will fall — but ready for a fresh influx of immigrants as the unrest stretches on.Why it matters: Venezuelans have taken to the streets in recent days to protest the election results, a reality that some analysts say could worsen the country&#x27;s crisis and push more people to leave.

News

Less than a month before the presidential election, campaigns are finally reaching out to the Latino voters who will play a key role in determining the outcome of the tight contest, a new poll indicates.

Why it matters: A record number of Latinos are eligible to vote this year and could especially have an impact in swing states where their numbers have been increasing.

Latinos make up about one-fifth of Florida's electorate and represent the third-largest number of Latino eligible voters in the country, a report from UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Institute found.

Driving the news: Many Latinos have said campaigns barely or never contacted them, which advocates said was one reason Latinos weren't registering to vote. 

But a newly released poll of voters in battleground states — including Florida — found a majority of Latinos (64%) say they've now been contacted by campaigns or get-out-the-vote organizations. 

Case in point: In August, Miami-Dade Democratic Party First Vice Chair Millie Herrera told Axios the local party was doubling down on its messaging and grassroots efforts to reach the Latino community. 

"The Democratic Party [in Miami] wasn't as active as we would've wanted in past years. Now we're on the ground," Herrera said then. "There's still time."

Last month, Chispa, the popular dating app among Latinos, and Voto Latino teamed up again to encourage Gen Z Hispanics to register to vote. 

The state's ballot initiative that would enshrine abortion in the state's constitution is expected to mobilize young Floridians, and reproductive rights a top issue for young Latina women. 

By the numbers: The majority of Hispanics polled — 7 out of 10 — said they definitely plan to vote on Nov. 5. 

In Florida, 61% of those polled said cost of living and inflation were the most important issues facing the country. 

Zoom in: At a town hall with Univision last week in Doral, Donald Trump, speaking to an audience of undecided Hispanic voters, leaning into anti-immigrant rhetoric. 

The former president claimed without evidence that jails and asylums in Latin America and the Caribbean were sending their residents to the U.S., the Miami Herald reported. 

He also repeated baseless claims about Haitian immigrants eating pets. 

Still, the Latino community, which helped shift Miami-Dade right in recent years, has overall favored Trump. 

Of those polled, 46% of Floridians say they plan to vote for Trump, compared to 39% who say they'll vote for Harris.

Presidential campaigns finally courting Latino voters, poll finds

Latinos make up about one-fifth of Florida's electorate.

Illustration of a "Yo Voté" sticker surrounded by ballot imagery.

Less than a month before the presidential election, campaigns are finally <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="reaching out to the Latino voters" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2024/10/17/trump-harris-latino-vote-election?utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=newsletter_axioslatino&amp;stream=science" data-vars-content-id="4d2b8a6f-168c-48dc-8b8d-c665594c7e58" data-vars-headline="Presidential campaigns finally courting Latino voters, poll finds" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2024/10/17/trump-harris-latino-vote-election?utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=newsletter_axioslatino&amp;stream=science" target="_self">reaching out to the Latino voters</a> who will play a key role in determining the outcome of the tight contest, a new poll indicates.Why it matters: A <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="record number" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2024/02/08/biden-hispanic-latino-trump-2024-elections" data-vars-content-id="4d2b8a6f-168c-48dc-8b8d-c665594c7e58" data-vars-headline="Presidential campaigns finally courting Latino voters, poll finds" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2024/02/08/biden-hispanic-latino-trump-2024-elections" target="_self">record number</a> of Latinos are eligible to vote this year and could especially have an impact in swing states where their numbers have been increasing.

Marina E. Franco (Noticias Telemundo for Axios)

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