Poll: Bayh leads close secretary of state race
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The race for Indiana's next secretary of state remains a real toss-up.
Why it matters: A new poll from Free Press Indiana gives a slim advantage to Democrat Beau Bayh, making the top of Indiana's ticket one of the most interesting races to watch.
Driving the news: Bayh leads Republican Max Engling by 8 points in the open race, with 11 percent of likely voters still undecided, according to a poll released today.
Context: The race is more unpredictable than usual for Indiana's statewide offices — a Democrat hasn't won since 2012 — due to a crowded field of relatively unknown candidates.
- Republicans turned away from embattled incumbent Diego Morales at the state's GOP nominating convention.
- Engling has worked as a congressional staffer but isn't well known by the general public. Nearly half of those surveyed in the FPI poll had never heard of him.
- Bayh's last name is giving him an advantage. Just 27% of surveyed voters said they've never heard of the third generation of a powerful Hoosier political family.
- Libertarian Lauri Shillings and independent Greg Ballard, a former Republican mayor of Indianapolis running on the Lincoln Party line, are polling in the single digits but still have the ability to sway the outcome.
By the numbers: Bayh and Engling are essentially tied in their unfavorability ratings — 18% and 17%, respectively. However, Bayh's name recognition pays off in favorability, 35% to just 12% for Engling.
The fine print: Bellwether Research surveyed more than 800 likely voters in Indiana for Free Press Indiana from Oct. 8–11.
- The sample was drawn from the state voter file and included registrants who voted in at least one general election from 2018 to 2024 or who registered since 2024.
- The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
The intrigue: Democrat Jessica Bailey is neck-and-neck in the race for state comptroller with GOP incumbent Elise Nieshalla in FPI's poll.
- Incumbent Republican Daniel Elliott holds a 5-point advantage over Democrat Coumba Kebe for state treasurer.
The bottom line: Midterm woes, a president whose favorability rating is underwater and an enthusiasm gap benefiting Democrats could upset Indiana's deep red apple cart.