Holiday travel remains uncertain despite shutdown's end
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Illustration: Maura Kearns/Axios
Travelers are increasingly turning to road and rail this holiday season as flight cuts ordered by the Federal Aviation Administration drive cancellations in Indianapolis and beyond.
Why it matters: The record-long federal government shutdown coming to an end doesn't mean air travel will immediately go back to normal, and the week of Thanksgiving is one of the busiest times for flying.
The big picture: Indianapolis International Airport is among the major U.S. airports dealing with FAA-mandated cuts to ease demand on control towers.
- Cuts increased to 6% at 40 airports on Tuesday, up from 4%.
- That number was set to hit 10% on Friday, but the FAA issued an emergency order Wednesday night freezing the reductions at the current level.
State of play: Air traffic employees have been working without pay, and some workers have been calling out sick, causing weeks of flight disruptions.
- Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said that the situation has improved, and a "rapid decline" in callouts suggests a further ramp up in-flight reductions isn't necessary.
Yes, but: Duffy said the cuts will remain in place until safety metrics improve and staffing levels stabilize at air traffic control facilities.
- "If the FAA safety team determines the trend lines are moving in the right direction, we'll put forward a path to resume normal operations," he said in a statement.
What they're saying: Indianapolis Airport Authority officials told Axios Wednesday that IND is expecting passenger traffic to be significant the week of Thanksgiving, especially Nov. 26 and Nov. 30.
- "If the air-traffic reduction rule is still in place during Thanksgiving, IND will continue to operate as normal in the terminal, with a focus on ensuring travelers have a smooth and pleasant experience and remaining in close contact with our federal partners," officials said in a statement.
The intrigue: Flight disruptions are putting a strain on rental car fleets. Hertz says one-way vehicle reservations are up more than 20% compared with the same period last year.
- Amtrak is also predicting record Thanksgiving numbers, and officials told the AP it is "reasonable to expect an increased share shift to Amtrak" if flight disruptions continue.
Zoom in: Hoosiers who drive instead of fly will have to budget for gas prices that are trending up.
- The average price per gallon in the Indianapolis metro area was back above $3 to start November after falling last month under the $3 threshold for the first time since March, per data from tracking app GasBuddy.
- At about 5 cents more, Indiana is one of 23 states with higher average gas prices this week than one year ago.
Between the lines: GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan said Monday the nation's average price of gasoline was up 4.8 cents over the last week and stands at $3.03 per gallon.
- "With thousands of flight cancellations ahead of Thanksgiving due to the FAA flight cuts, there could be slight shifts in gasoline demand, which may limit any near-term declines," he writes.
Threat level: In a recent interview with NPR, AAA spokesperson Aixa Diaz said that even on a good day, air travel causes anxiety and nervousness among many people.
- She added that the agency's annual travel forecasts will be more difficult to pin down in 2025 as emotions run high and people decide to suddenly hit the road to avoid the airport.
- "Uncertainty is sort of baked into travel, and this certainly doesn't help," she said. "But I think keeping it in perspective, controlling what you can and staying informed. Don't be caught off guard."
The bottom line: Thanksgiving travel may be a bigger headache than usual this year.