Rep. André Carson's seat at risk in redistricting
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If Indiana Republicans' redistricting effort goes to plan, they'll draw U.S. Rep. André Carson out of the seat his family has held for nearly four decades.
Why it matters: Aside from responsibilities like filing legislation and voting on bills, there's a lot of latitude in what your congressional representative may (or may not) do for you — from constituent services to securing federal funding for local projects.
- Constituent services include things such as assisting folks access federal benefits like Social Security and Medicaid, helping with passport issues and hosting job fairs.
Between the lines: Before Carson took office in 2008, the 7th District seat was held for two decades by his grandmother, Julia Carson.
- Public service is a passion, he said, and he's built a team of experienced people committed to serving Indianapolis — people who understand the city and its needs.
What he's saying: "I don't think Indianapolis would be best represented by a MAGA acolyte," Carson told Axios.
- The city and its residents have different needs than rural areas, he added, which it would likely be paired with in new districts.
State of play: Lawmakers haven't shared a draft map, yet, but Marion County would need to be split in order to spread the high concentration of Democratic voters without making other districts more competitive.
- Based on last year's presidential election, there's a net difference of nearly 110,000 7th District Democratic voters who would need to be divided among the new 7th and surrounding districts.
Yes, but: Neighboring districts, including the 4th, 6th and 8th Districts, each have similar margins in favor of Republicans, making it possible to absorb Indianapolis' Democrats without putting other safely red seats at risk.
The bottom line: Drawing the districts will be relatively easy, but whether they hold up to potential legal challenges will depend on convincing a court that chopping up Marion County is based on politics rather than race, says Indiana University civics professor Paul Helmke.
What we're watching: Helmke said a ruling in a Louisiana case before the U.S. Supreme Court challenging a section of the Voting Rights Act could be the deciding factor.
- "Because so much of this is happening in so many different states," Helmke said, "I think what's more likely is an expedited ruling in the Louisiana case that strengthens or hurts Carson."