What could be at risk if Indiana doesn't deliver on redistricting

Catch up quick: "If we try to drag our feet as a state on it, probably, we'll have consequences of not working with the Trump administration as tightly as we should," Braun said last week on Fort Wayne's WOWO radio.

• Braun has also said he thinks lawmakers are warming to the idea, and he'll likely call a special redistricting session between November and January.
• Other Republican-led states, like Texas and Missouri, have already moved ahead with redistricting efforts.

Zoom in: Anti-redistricting advocates have called on Braun and state lawmakers to resist the political pressure because, they say, it will disenfranchise voters — especially voters of color.

• "So far, the Trump administration has used carrots to try to convince the legislators to do this," Julia Vaughn with Common Cause Indiana told Axios. "If they continue to resist, as the governor said, there could be consequences. What are those? Is the president threatening health care access of vulnerable Hoosiers? If so, that's pretty low."

State of play: Braun told Axios the "consequences" could impact education reform and health care policy.

• But he added that the administration hasn't explicitly threatened to pull federal funding.

What he's saying: "Why would you mess with the relationship, when Indiana has been accruing a lot of benefits from it?" Braun said.

• Case in point: One of five USDA hubs is coming to Indiana as part of a massive reorganization.

Between the lines: The state is awaiting federal approval of a Medicaid expansion waiver amendment, and Vaughn expressed concern that the federal government could eliminate the state's expansion program that covers 750,000 Hoosiers.

• Yes, but: The things Indiana has requested — a work requirement and appropriation cap — are in line with federal policies, so it's unlikely that the request would be denied.
• Even if it were, that would not necessarily kill the program.

Other possible targets: If (and when) the state makes a request of the Federal Highway Administration for a waiver to implement new interstate tolls and federal grants, including from the new rural hospital fund created by the megabill.

• Laura Brown, deputy general counsel with the Indiana Hospital Association, said she won't speculate about the feds using the funding as leverage but hospitals are counting on the new fund to help cover the cost of parts of the bill that will result in $1 billion in annual losses for hospitals statewide.
• "It is critical," Brown told Axios. "We're so thankful it was included, but it does not offset the overall cuts we will see."

The other side: Democrats are calling the political pressure an abuse of power.

• "Hoosiers helped deliver one of the earliest victories for Trump in 2024," said state Sen. Shelli Yoder (D-Bloomington) in an email to Axios. "And this is how he repays them — by threatening their state because it won't cheat for him."
• "What's the point of having a governor and U.S. senators who are proudly on Team Trump if they can't even negotiate with him not to cut funding to a red state because we won't take unprecedented action for his blatant political power grab?" said Sam Barloga, spokesperson for Indiana Democrats.