Braun: Harris enthusiasm impacting down-ballot races
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Enthusiasm for Vice President Kamala Harris' presidential campaign could complicate down-ballot races for Republicans.
Why it matters: Reliably red Indiana isn't expected to be in play for Harris in November, but Republicans are still watching how excitement around her campaign may change voter turnout and tighten other races.
Driving the news: Sen. Mike Braun, the Republican candidate for governor, told reporters last week that the change at the top of the Democratic ticket is "the biggest factor" impacting all down-ballot races — including his own.
- "I think that's had an impact," he said, "but I'm going to plow through that because this is a lot about kitchen table issues once you're starting to run for governor."
- Braun said the other side of the aisle is "re-energized" because it's no longer inevitable that Democrats will lose the presidential race.
State of play: In 2020, then-President Trump received 57% of the vote in Indiana, while Gov. Eric Holcomb ran just behind him at 56.5%.
- Braun is still the strong favorite heading into November, but an increase in turnout among Democrats could have an impact, said Aaron Dusso, an associate professor of political science at IU Indianapolis.
- "Voters focus so much on the top of the ticket," he said. "They vote for the rest because they're there, but they went to vote for president."
- President Biden would have been a huge drag on the ticket, Dusso said, and that could have rippled into Democrats losing seats in the Statehouse.
Yes, but: With Trump still predicted to win with a comfortable margin in Indiana, Democrats in statewide races would need to pump a lot of cash into flipping a Trump voter to the other side down the ballot.
- "It's pretty much crunch time and we've not seen that," Dusso said.
- Case in point: Braun and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jennifer McCormick recently launched their first general election ads — but Braun is spending about five times what McCormick has shelled out.
What we're watching: Democrat Destiny Wells lost a high-profile race for Secretary of State two years ago. This year she's challenging incumbent Todd Rokita for the attorney general's office — a race that could tighten if turnout among Democrats is up.
- Dusso said local races in purple areas, like the Indianapolis suburbs, could be more competitive.
The latest: Indiana Democrats launched a new "Hoosiers for Harris" volunteer and donation drive this week to capitalize on the top of the ticket energy.
- "We have seen a huge surge of enthusiasm around Kamala Harris' bid for the presidency over the last few weeks," said Indiana Democratic Party chair Mike Schmuhl. "Hoosiers for Harris will capture this energy so more and more voters realize the stakes in this election and make a plan to vote on or before Nov. 5."
What's next: The deadline to register to vote is Oct. 7.