Instability rocks Houston energy summit

Instability is the defining mood at the world's most influential energy gathering this week in Houston — playing out in a split screen of oil markets jolted by the Iran war and an AI-supercharged power sector.

Why it matters: The vibe at the CERAWeek conference underscores how quickly the energy landscape has turned unpredictable, leaving billions in investment decisions — and what consumers ultimately pay — hanging in the balance.

Driving the news: The biggest headlines out of the S&P Global-run event are coming from the parallel geopolitical events of the Iran war and Venezuela.

What they're saying: Conference host Daniel Yergin asked ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance on the main stage yesterday how he thought the oil market was doing. "It's a bit unstable," Lance replied with a subdued chuckle.

Between the lines: That nervous laughter felt like a mask for the deeper uncertainty permeating the conference. Conversations on and off stages feel disconnected from the reality on the ground.

• Energy Secretary Chris Wright has been all over the conference for much of this week, seeking to reassure the oil industry that the Iran war will be short-lived — despite no end in sight.
• Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado pitched her country's oil reserves to a packed audience last night and drew the gathering's only standing ovation so far.
• But earlier in the day, Lance called recent reforms of Venezuela's oil laws "woefully inadequate."

The intrigue: On a parallel track, fervor about the AI boom is teetering between excitement and worry.

• With executives here for the first time, Nvidia is touting initiatives on nuclear with Microsoft and on flexible data centers.
• Novel energy storage technologies are riding high with new deals this week on fresh AI-driven demand.

But some top executives are warning that the U.S. still isn't moving fast enough on data center energy needs.

• "We are concerned that we are not full throttle on energy," Ruth Porat, president and chief investment officer of Google parent company Alphabet, said this week on the main stage.

Reality check: Outside in the 85-degree heat, criticism lingered in the humidity.

• Protesters marched past the confab's epicenter of the Hilton Hotel and George R. Brown Convention Center, arguing — among other things — that fossil fuel dependence is fueling geopolitical crises from Iran to Venezuela.
• In a wonkier sign of dissent, a truck circled the area with an electronic billboard claiming that fossil-fuel electricity needs backup, too, just like variable wind and solar energy.
• But climate change has all but evaporated from main-stage conversations.

What we're watching: We're still just halfway through, but some conference goers are already leaving.

• In the hallways, dinners and happy hours, nervous chatter is rising about the horrendously long security lines at Houston's main airport.

The bottom line: Turns out Iran isn't the only place that's hard to leave.