2025 hurricane season may see "above-normal" storm activity

• Before last year's prediction of 11 hurricanes, the previous high in 1995 called for nine hurricanes.
• Unusually warm waters in the Atlantic, along with the likely absence of El Niño — typically a hurricane suppressant — are driving expectations for the season.

The latest: This week, Houston's National Weather Service office published its 2025 Hurricane Guide, highlighting the expected effects on the region from hurricanes of varying strength.

• Storm surge and damaging winds continue to be the main threats posed by hurricanes to the Gulf Coast, especially in Greater Houston, where a Category 5 storm could cause widespread flooding from Galveston to La Porte.
• NOAA — the National Weather Service's federal parent organization — typically issues its hurricane season outlook in May.

The big picture: Houston is still recovering from last year's Hurricane Beryl, which flooded streets, damaged homes and businesses, and left 44 people dead in Harris County.

Zoom in: Researchers forecast a busier season than the 1991-2020 average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes — those with sustained winds of 111 mph or higher.

• The forecast is intended to provide a "best estimate of activity in the Atlantic during the upcoming season, not an exact measure," according to a CSU news release.

Yes but: Last year, the CSU forecast of 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes proved accurate.

What they're saying: "As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season," CSU wrote.

• "Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity."

What's next: The CSU team will issue forecast updates on June 11, July 9 and Aug. 6.

• Hurricane season starts June 1.