Nov 1, 2023 - News

Most Texas Republicans intend to vote for Trump, per new poll

Photo of Donald Trump on a stage, with the American flag behind him at a rally.

Donald Trump at the Save America rally in October 2022 in Robstown, Texas. Photo: Brandon Bell/Getty Images

More than half of likely Republican voters in Texas intend to vote for Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential primary, according to a new University of Houston and Texas Southern University report.

Driving the news: Trump is visiting Houston on Thursday for a campaign event. It will be his first public campaign event in Texas since a Make America Great rally in Waco in March.

  • He is scheduled to speak at 4pm at Trendsetter Engineering.

Why it matters: The early poll underscores that while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has amped up his attacks on Trump, Texas Republicans still largely side with the former president, per the UH's Hobby School of Public Affairs and TSU's Barbara Jordan–Mickey Leland School of Public Affairs report.

Details: The survey was conducted between Oct. 6 and 18 with 524 registered Texas voters who indicated that they plan to vote in the 2024 Texas Republican presidential primary. It had a 4.3% margin of error.

By the numbers: 58% of likely 2024 Texas Republican primary voters intend to vote for Trump, while 14% intend to vote for DeSantis.

  • The candidate with the next most likely voters is Nikki Haley, with 6%.

Of note: The survey was midway through its fieldwork when former San Antonio-area U.S. Rep. Will Hurd dropped out of the race, but it finished its fieldwork prior to Larry Elder's, Perry Johnson's and Mike Pence's respective decisions to end their candidacies.

What they found: In a hypothetical 2024 GOP two-candidate primary faceoff between Trump and DeSantis, the report found that 66% of respondents intend to vote for Trump, compared to 25% for DeSantis.

  • 5% were unsure, and 4% indicated that they would not vote if these were the only two candidates.
  • In the same hypothetical, Haley and Chris Christie voters overwhelmingly prefer DeSantis, while Vivek Ramaswamy and Pence voters overwhelmingly prefer Trump.

Between the lines: There were no noteworthy gender differences in vote intention for Trump and DeSantis in the hypothetical.

  • Latino Republican primary voters are significantly more likely (79%) than their white counterparts (62%) to vote for Trump.

What's next: Primaries in Texas are on March 5.

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