Organizers, here’s how the war in Gaza will impact the 2024 election

This spring, Public Wise embarked on a research project to quantitatively and qualitatively assess the electoral risk that the war in Gaza might pose in November.

The challenge: The organization's partners in vital swing states said their members, volunteers and grassroots supporters say the war in Gaza gives them some reticence toward supporting President Biden.

The strategy: Public Wise aimed to understand…

• How many voters rank the war in Gaza as the single issue determining who they will vote for — and/or whether they will vote.
• Which voters rank the war in Gaza as the single issue determining their voting plans.
• Whether there are messaging strategies that can encourage protest voters to remain in the electorate in November.

Along with a national survey and swing state oversamples, this project relied on non-synchronous online 1:1 interviews to better understand how some high-risk constituencies feel about the War in Gaza and other issues affecting their vote intentions — including Jewish, Muslim, Arab-American and Gen Z voters and Black progressives in the South.

• Worth a mention: These populations were selected because they're thought to be at the highest risk of defecting from Biden in November.

The results: The research pointed toward several strategic recommendations for organizations on the ground to help persuade and mobilize voters.

• When crafting messages for voters, keep the focus on them. Use personal appeals and remind voters to choose what's best for them and their family's future overall.
• Don't be afraid to integrate multiple issues into a single communication. While there are single issues that have the potential to sway a voter's opinion, most voters approach elections holistically and see themselves as weighing many issues when voting.
• Don't disparage or degrade single-issue voters or voting — even when talking to non-single-issue voters. Among non-single-issue voters, the research found high levels of empathy for people who may be single-issue voters, especially on issues that are emotionally charged like abortion or the war in Gaza.

More info: Other key findings from the research offer insight into what voters are thinking at this point in the election cycle.

• 11% of 2020 Biden voters nationally are not committed to Biden for the 2024 election but remain persuadable.
• Another 9% of 2020 Biden voters are not committed to Biden and are less persuadable.
• Approval of Biden's handling of the war in Gaza is lower among Biden 2020 voters who are not yet committed to voting for him.
• Persuadable Biden voters skew younger and lower income, and they're disproportionately Latino, Muslim, Middle Eastern and North African American.
• Younger voters are more likely to cast their vote solely based on the war in Gaza, but they're also more open to casting their vote based on other single issues.

What this means: Democrats can't afford to treat young voters, Arab-American voters, Muslim voters, Black progressives, Jewish voters, and Gen-Z voters as simply "turnout universes."

Though these populations tend to skew Democratic, in 2024 the party must be engaged in real persuasion efforts to ensure that these voters show up and support candidates who will protect American democracy.

Read more about Public Wise's insights on the war in Gaza and voter dynamics in 2024.