Michigan's falling fertility rate mimics U.S. decline

By the numbers: The CDC defines the fertility rate as births per 1,000 women ages 15 to 44.

• The U.S. fertility rate was 53.8 in 2024, while Michigan's was slightly lower at 51.5.
• Michigan's rate fell sharply over the last decade from 60.6 in 2014.
• That's a much bigger drop than the previous decade — the 2005 rate was 61.9, just barely higher than 2014.

Zoom in: In one category of fallout from lower fertility, Michigan expects "significant declines" in the 5- to 17-year-old population — about 18% from 2025 to 2050 — per the state's data analysis center.

• Declining enrollment at public schools means less money for already struggling institutions.

Zoom out: The decline in fertility rates isn't uniform. Some central Plains states are bucking the trend due to several factors, including larger populations of young people, low child-care costs and affordability of family-sized homes.

• Plus, Americans are partnering, marrying and starting families later than previous generations, especially in larger metropolitan areas.
• But rural regions and more religious communities tend to see earlier marriage and childbearing, extending the years during which families might have additional children.

What they're saying: "Generally in demography we find more births where moms can (more) easily find higher-waged jobs," family demographer Jennifer Glass tells Axios. "The gender wage gap is lower in Dallas than Detroit or Pittsburgh, for example."

Yes, but: Fertility rates declining don't mean the population is shrinking. Births are still occurring more quickly than deaths in the U.S., per Johns Hopkins' public health publication.

Go deeper: Fertility decline over the years has led to the U.S. "youth implosion"