Trump won these Iowa counties. Rob Sand did, too.
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
President Trump announced in September that a $15 billion steel plant will be built in eastern Iowa. Photo: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
Iowa isn't red, blue or even purple but more historically a swing state, says University of Northern Iowa political science professor Donna Hoffman.
Why it matters: The midterm election results underscore Iowa's unpredictable voting patterns, with some counties backing Democrats in statewide races while supporting Republicans in federal elections.
Driving the news: We examined two of those counties where President Trump worked to rally votes.
- Lee County: Cross-party voters
Trump's promise of a multibillion-dollar steel mill wasn't enough to secure a victory for Republican Zach Lahn, but Republican U.S. Reps. Ashley Hinson and Mariannette Miller-Meeks still beat out their Democratic challengers in the county.
- The steel mill was one of Trump's efforts to gain political points, but the gesture likely didn't land because it had bipartisan support and hasn't been built or created jobs yet, Hoffman says.
- Gov.-elect Rob Sand won the county by only around 20 votes, and it's likely there was ballot roll-off, where some people left the House and Senate blank. There may have also been some Republicans who supported him and Hinson, who ran a stronger campaign than Lahn, Hoffman says.
2. Dubuque: A county in transition
In 2016, Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to win Dubuque since Dwight Eisenhower in 1956.
- Since 2016, the Catholic, blue-collar county has swung back and forth between the parties. Trump's messaging resonated with voters three presidential cycles in a row, but they still chose to send Democrats to Congress.
- Trump won Dubuque County by 9 points in 2024, while 57% of voters chose Sand.
Between the lines: Trump visited Dubuque just two days before the election. While that strategy may have energized his base, it may have also alienated others, Hoffman says.
Yes, but: Support for Sand isn't a sign that Dubuque is returning to its Democratic roots.
- It's more a sign of voter enthusiasm, particularly among Democrats and independents, who may not show up every election but turned out this go-around.
- How voters will swing in the future is still up in the air, Hoffman says.