4 takeaways from Iowa's election results
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Iowa Gov.-elect Rob Sand speaks at a midterm election night watch party with Iowa Democrats at the State Historical Museum of Iowa on Tuesday. Photo: Scott Olson/Getty Images
Iowa voters handed Democrats their biggest election victories in years Tuesday, but the results suggest their decisions were about more than political parties.
Driving the news: We chatted with two longtime politicos, Republican evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats and Democratic strategist Matt Paul, to get their takes.
- They say the results reflect candidate appeal, dissatisfaction with President Trump and voters' willingness to cross party lines.
1. Iowans like Rob
Whether it was the calls for transparency, grassroots town halls or a viral skateboarding video, Rob Sand won not only in Iowa's urban cores but also 20 counties that went for President Trump in 2024. He garnered 757,000 votes — the most in recent history for the gubernatorial race.
- Paul said Republicans missed two key opportunities: They failed to challenge Sand's popularity despite early signs he would run for governor. Zach Lahn also largely stopped campaigning for a month after he won the GOP nomination, allowing Sand to portray him as a Kansas outsider.
- Vander Plaats says Sand's populist messaging and presenting himself as a "quasi-Republican" proved beneficial. He also notes that Sand already had statewide recognition and outspent Lahn by $24 million.
2. A vote against Trump
Like the rest of the country, Iowans voiced their rejection of rising prices under the Trump administration and the country's involvement in the Iran war.
- That was most clear through Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird's loss to Democratic challenger Nate Willems, Paul says.
- Bird, who lost by around 24,000 votes, was a vocal Trump supporter. Iowa's other statewide races were either won by Republicans or Democrats won by narrow margins, like 5,500 votes in the auditor's race.
3. A vote for Sand didn't always translate to Turek support
Sand won 55% of the state's votes in comparison to Josh Turek's 50.5%. In counties such as Buchanan, Bremer and Boone, Sand prevailed while Turek lost.
- Vander Plaats says the crossover voting is evidence of voters' independence rather than a wholesale ideological shift.
- "The voters are way smarter than we think they are," he says.
- He pointed out that Iowans supported a conservative constitutional amendment that will make it harder to raise income taxes.
4. A look at 2028
Sand's win and growing national profile could encourage national Democrats to reconsider Iowa's role in their nominating calendar, Vander Plaats says.
- As for Republicans, he says Trump's political setback could complicate the path for potential successors, including Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
- He expects a "wide open" caucus field.