Model shows Iowa vaccine declines could add 9,400 disease cases

Driving the news: On Wednesday, Rollins School of Public Health released an expanded version of its VaxImpactMap, increasing the number of childhood diseases it models.

The latest: The update adds chickenpox, Hib (Haemophilus influenzae type b) and RSV.

• The original map, launched in February, covered only rotavirus, whooping cough and pneumococcal disease.

By the numbers: If coverage fell 10 percentage points and stayed there for five years, the model projects about 9,400 additional disease cases in Iowa, 176 more hospitalizations and $19.6 million in added costs.

Caveat: The estimates are projections based on hypothetical declines in vaccination coverage — not forecasts of future outbreaks.

Flashback: Iowa has made vaccine exemptions easier to get, eliminating the notarization requirement for religious exemptions in 2024 and last year requiring schools to inform families how to seek them.

What we're watching: Whether Iowa's kindergarten vaccine exemption trend rises for a sixth straight year after climbing from 2.2% in 2020-21 to 4.9% last year.

• Data for the current school year is expected in 2027.