New census data: Iowa lost 41K middle-aged residents
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Illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios
Iowa lost more than 41,000 people ages 45–64 since 2020 — a group central to the state's workforce, tax base, and caregiving system.
Why it matters: Iowa is losing experienced workers and caregivers just as its aging population needs more of both.
By the numbers: Iowa's 45–64 population fell 5.3% — from about 778,900 in April 2020 to 737,300 in July 2025 — according to an Axios analysis of U.S. Census Bureau estimates released last month.
- The decline was larger than the national decrease of 3.2% but smaller than the Midwest's 6.2% drop.
- Meanwhile, Iowa's population age 65 and older grew 13.1%, to nearly 650,000.
- The number of Iowans younger than 18 fell 3%, while the state's overall population grew 1.5%, to nearly 3.24 million people.
The big picture: The 45–64 cohort includes most of Generation X and the youngest baby boomers, many of whom are retiring faster than younger generations are replacing them.
- Iowa's median age increased from 38.6 in 2020 to 39.3 in 2025.
- About 20% of Iowans are now 65 or older, according to Census QuickFacts.
State of play: Iowa has already struggled to find enough workers, a longtime economic constraint compounded by young college graduates leaving the state.
- Economists have linked the state's sluggish economic growth to workforce shortages and demographic headwinds.
- Iowa was also recently ranked among the states with the highest outbound moving rates, potentially further shrinking its future workforce and tax base.
Zoom in: Older Iowans are helping fill the gap. Iowa had the nation's second-highest share of residents age 65 and older still working in 2023, at 23.9%.
Yes, but: Relying on people to work later may become less sustainable as more residents require care themselves.
- Iowa lost more than 250 health care facilities between 2008 and 2023, including elder-care and home-health providers, according to a 2024 report.
- The state's nursing home system has also faced persistent staff shortages and facility closures.
The bottom line: Iowa's overall population is still growing, but the shrinking ranks of its most experienced workers and caregivers could make the state's existing labor, health care and budget challenges even harder to solve.