Rob Sand's uphill battle to become Iowa's next governor
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Iowa Auditor Rob Sand. Photo: Courtesy of Sand's campaign
Rob Sand — the leading Democrat in the race to be Iowa's next governor — has an "uphill climb" if he wants the state's top seat, according to political analysts.
Why it matters: The New York Times lauded Sand in 2019 as Iowa Democrats' "model for how to win" — and now the electorate will see if that's true.
Driving the news: Sand announced Monday that he's running in the 2026 gubernatorial race.
- Gov. Kim Reynolds, who announced she's not seeking reelection, is leaving behind an open primary for potential Republican candidates, including U.S. Rep. Randy Feenstra, House Speaker Pat Grassley and Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird.
The big picture: Sand, the only Democrat currently serving in an elected statewide seat in Iowa, has been Iowa's auditor since 2019.
- He tells Axios that Iowans don't want to feel "owned" by a political party and described Republicans who have voted for him as "Rob-publicans."
- He won reelection by fewer than 3,000 votes in 2022 "amid a catastrophic Democratic performance atop the ticket," per Cook Political Report, which on Monday shifted the contest from "Solid Republican" to "Lean Republican" because of Sand's track record.
State of play: One of his priorities, if elected, is legalizing cannabis and treating it similarly to alcohol, he told WHO-13.
- Other priorities include "restoring" rights to the auditor's office, adding more accountability to the private school scholarship program and improving outdoor recreation.
Zoom in: Dennis Goldford, a political science professor at Drake University, says Iowa last elected a Democratic governor in 2006.
- The state was purple then, but it's solidly red now, he says.
- As of early May, Iowa Republicans have a lead in active voter registrations (40%) over Democrats (29%). Independents make up 31%. The 2024 Republican caucus season could also influence these numbers.
Yes, but: Though Sand has challenges ahead, UNI political science professor Chris Larimer notes several things are in his favor, including statewide election experience, strong fundraising numbers and Democrats' enthusiasm this midterm election.
What they're saying: "Why do we have to be Democrats or Republicans? I have yet to hear a decent answer for that question," Sand says. "There's a good chunk of people who feel the same way, and they're frustrated with feeling trapped, and I think a lot of them appreciate the ability to vote for me because it gives them a sense of belonging somewhere."
The other side: Republican Governors Association communications director Courtney Alexander criticized Sand as an "extreme liberal" in a statement.
- "Iowans want a governor who will protect their values and tax dollars, not one who needs his rich family to be named the 'Influencer of Iowa Democrats' by the New York Times," according to the statement.
The bottom line: "'24 was a relatively boring time in Iowa politics," Goldford says. "'26 will be very interesting."