Why Colorado favored Democrats in the 2024 election
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Democrats performed better in Colorado compared to the rest of the nation in the 2024 election because of demographics and support for abortion rights, an Axios analysis shows.
Why it matters: The Colorado results are being studied by Democrats nationwide as the party looks to rebuild ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
State of play: How our one-time swing state remained mostly blue is crystalizing in the final vote tallies and a pair of exit polls from nonpartisan Colorado Polling Institute and the Democratic firm Global Strategy Group.
- Here are five insights from the numbers:
1. Abortion is a potent issue. Both exit polls found that abortion was a top concern for Colorado voters in this election, on par with the economy and immigration.
- The well-funded Amendment 79 campaign to codify abortion access in the state constitution, captured voters' attention and boosted Democrats up and down the ballot, more so than in other states.
- Global Strategy Group estimates the ballot measure added 4 percentage points to Vice President Harris' margin statewide and even outperformed baseline partisanship numbers among white, non-college and rural voters.
2. The power of an educated electorate. If education is the "single, best predictor" of voting preference, it's easy to see why Colorado voters favor Democrats.
- Colorado ranks at the top nationwide for educational attainment, and two exit polls estimated those with four-year college degrees or higher education comprised roughly half of the vote and overwhelmingly picked Harris.
3. Young voters turnout. Another demographic that defines where voters stand is age, and Colorado is home to motivated young voters who lean Democratic.
- Colorado voters 18-34 years old turned out at 69% — 27 points higher than the estimated national average — and overwhelmingly backed Harris, according to New Era Colorado, a youth organizing nonprofit.
- The gap also is reflected in broader age ranges. The Colorado Polling Institute put Harris' advantage with voters under age 45 at 30 points, while President-elect Trump won voters over age 65 by 5 points.
4. Independent voters stand behind Democrats. A plurality — and near majority at 49% — of Colorado voters are not affiliated with a political party.
- This bloc leans Democratic, thanks in part to the party's leaders at the state Capitol who are creating positive impressions about the economy and addressing other major issues.
- One thing is clear: Independents in Colorado don't like Trump or his MAGA agenda, pollsters found. This makes it hard for them to support GOP candidates in the future.
5. Suburbs stay blue. The counties that surround Denver once stood as battleground territory, but all increased their margin for top-ticket Democrats since 2016 except one: Adams County, where Democratic U.S. Rep. Yadira Caraveo lost reelection.
- Democratic inroads in Douglas County continued. Republican U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert barely won the county by 0.8 points in her 4th District bid against a little-known Democratic rival.
Yes, but: The latest numbers also contain red flags for Democrats in Colorado, too.
- Blue-collar Latino areas shifted significantly toward Trump, as seen nationwide. Harris did not perform as well as Biden in these areas, which kept the size of her victory statewide smaller than his 2020 margins.
- Most notably, Trump won Pueblo by 5 points, 51% to 46%, despite Biden taking the county by 2 points.