Lauren Boebert and Adam Frisch deadlocked in early 2024 poll

Why it matters: It's the first substantive poll to show Frisch with a possible advantage in the conservative district, pollster Chris Keating tells Axios.

State of play: Boebert won re-election in 2022 by a mere 546 votes, and Democrats are salivating at the chance to defeat the incumbent, who has established herself as a national GOP firebrand and ally of former President Trump.

• Frisch's strong showing is built on a 17-point advantage among unaffiliated voters and a 53% unfavorable rate for Boebert, the poll found.
• Boebert's campaign dismissed concerns about the 2024 outlook.

Of note: Keating Strategies conducted the Aug. 8-15 survey of 801 people, which carries a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.5 percentage points.

• The firm correctly predicted the closeness of the 2022 contest between Boebert and Frisch.

The intrigue: The latest numbers demonstrate support for Frisch, who has steadily gained support in recent polling but now faces a surprise Democratic primary from Grand Junction Mayor Anna Stout. Boebert also faces a primary challenge.

What to watch: Frisch, a former Aspen City Council member and wealthy investor, is still unknown by 40% of the likely electorate, the poll shows, putting the onus on the Democrat to win over voters and giving the GOP an opportunity to negatively define his reputation.