Larger TABOR refunds expected in 2024, new Colorado estimates show
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Colorado will collect more tax revenue than allowed this fiscal year — and that means a larger refund for taxpayers in 2024.
What's happening: The increase in surplus revenue is attributable to a "record high" in corporate income tax collections and a strong economy, according to two quarterly economic forecasts released Tuesday.
By the numbers: The nonpartisan Legislative Council economists predict the state will return $3.3 billion when taxes are filed next year under the limits in the Taxpayer's Bill of Rights.
- The governor's economists suggest the surplus is even larger at $3.5 billion, an increase of $870 million from the March 2021 forecast.
Yes, but: How much each person will receive depends on Proposition HH on the November ballot.
- If approved, all taxpayers will receive the same amount — now estimated between $854 and $873, up from the previous forecast of $672.
- If rejected, the refund is $587 to $1,854 depending on income level, with lower earners receiving less than the proposed flat rebate and those making over $100,000 receiving a larger amount.
The big picture: TABOR will force Colorado to return an estimated $9.2 billion to $11.1 billion in surplus revenue to taxpayers over a four-year period, starting this year.
Of note: The rebates will make it harder for lawmakers to draft a state budget that incorporates inflationary costs in coming years.
- One estimate from nonpartisan legislative analysts suggests the 2023-24 budget will fall $78 million short of what's needed to cover increased costs — without any new spending.