It's becoming harder to predict when it will snow in Columbus
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If you're anxious for the first major snowstorm of the winter, history says be patient.
State of play: Despite the holiday movies and songs portraying December as a winter wonderland, the bulk of our region's snow has typically fallen in January and February in recent years.
- Our first inch usually lands by Dec. 10, though — and with rain and highs in the 40s and 50s in this week's forecast, it's unlikely to arrive any time soon.
Why it matters: Climate change is disrupting snowfall patterns throughout the U.S., making them more extreme and unpredictable, according to a Climate Central analysis.
- While most places are seeing decreases in spring and fall snowfall, meteorological winter — December through February — is more of a mixed bag.
Zoom in: Columbus winters are now 4.6° F higher on average than in 1970.
The intrigue: Warming temperatures don't necessarily mean less snow, Climate Central meteorologist Lauren Casey tells Axios. Columbus winters are actually 3 inches snowier today.
How it works: A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, which means when it does snow, accumulation is greater.
- But on the flip side, fewer nights of below-freezing temperatures mean the piles and drifts don't stick around as long.
Flashback: Remember 2020's white Christmas, the only thing that seemed to go right that year? That was an exception, not the norm.
- Historically in Columbus, there's a 26% likelihood for what the National Weather Service dubs a white Christmas — an inch of snow on the ground on Christmas Day, Casey says.
What we're watching: An extreme weather event called the "Greenland Block" could disrupt our patterns and develop into a powerful storm before the new year, Axios' Andrew Freedman reports.
💡 Tyler's tip: Prep for winter storms ahead of time, especially if the highways are snowed in, and stock up on de-icer spray cans.
- They make for good stocking stuffers, particularly for young drivers.
Christmas Day climate extremes
Warmest high: 64° F (1893)
Coldest high: 1° F (1983)
Coldest low: -12° F (1983)
Warmest low: 55° F (1982, 1889)
Most precipitation: 0.82 inches (2021)
Most snowfall: 7 inches (1890)
Greatest snow depth: 9 inches (1960)
Source: National Weather Service