Rock & Roll Hall of Fame odds: 14 nominees' chances of induction
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Rock Hall nominees Cyndi Lauper, Oasis and Joe Cocker. Photos: Chris Walter/WireImage via Getty; Niels van Iperen/Getty Images; David Redfern/Redferns via Getty
We're roughly six weeks away from finding who will comprise the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame's class of 2025.
Why it matters: Nominees continue to make their case for induction, a distinction that can earn much-needed exposure for acts far past their primes.
Driving the news: Last week, Mariah Carey called upon fans to participate in the Rock Hall's annual Fan Vote.
- Elsewhere, Paul McCartney gave a ringing endorsement for the late Joe Cocker.
đŸ’ Troy's thought bubble: I did my best to assess the chances for each of the 14 nominees, based on past ballots, what I'm hearing from voters and overall buzz for this year's class, from most to least likely:
Joe Cocker
Many ballots may have already been turned in, but voters still deciding will take note of McCartney's support for Cocker. It's huge praise for a candidate who was probably already on the verge of getting in. Odds: 85%
Cyndi Lauper
With only two female-led acts on the ballot, voters will want to support Lauper on her second try, similar to previous inductee Pat Benatar. Odds: 75%
Outkast
A hip-hop artist has earned induction each of the past five years and Outkast is the genre's lone nominee in 2025. Odds: 70%
Mariah Carey
The nominating committee gave Carey an ideal ballot. There's no Cher or Mary J. Blige to split votes this time. Odds: 66%
Billy Idol
Idol has been vocal about his nomination, and his performance honoring Ozzy Osbourne at last year's ceremony put him front of mind with voters. Odds: 60%
Bad Company
Bad Company could be this year's Foreigner — the only classic rock band for diehards to rally around. Odds: 55%
Soundgarden
The lot of 1990s bands feels less crowded this year, making Soundgarden a coin flip to make it on its third try. Odds: 50%
Chubby Checker
Checker isn't the biggest name on the ballot, but the fact he's waited longer than anyone in history to earn a nomination will earn him votes. Odds: 45%
Joy Division/New Order
As a two-time nominee, Joy Division/New Order's candidacy feels more in line with a band like Depeche Mode, which needed three nominations to get in, than The Cure, which needed two. Odds: 33%
The White Stripes
The White Stripes will eventually get in, but there isn't much urgency for the only act on this list that earned its breakthrough in the 21st century. Odds: 30%
Oasis
Buzz from the band's recent reunion helps, but the Gallagher brothers don't seem to care much about the Rock Hall. Odds: 25%
Phish
History says don't bet against the winner of the Fan Vote, which Phish is currently leading. However, this feels a lot like when the Dave Matthews Band won the poll in 2020 but failed to earn induction. Odds: 20%
The Black Crowes
If the 1990s rock vote comes down to The Black Crowes or Soundgarden, the latter has the edge. Odds: 10%
ManĂ¡
ManĂ¡'s nomination was a head-scratcher. So, it's no surprise to see the Mexican band pulling up the rear in the Fan Vote. Odds: 3%