What a warmer winter means for Central Texans
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
You're not just imagining it. This winter has been unusually warm, and the ripple effects are showing up in plants, pollen counts — and sinuses.
Why it matters: Austin's winter so far has failed to bring the cold snaps that typically reset Central Texas ecosystems by slowing plant growth and kicking back pollen.
Driving the news: Data from Camp Mabry, Austin's central weather station, shows the month running about 4.1° above average so far, according to Monte Oaks, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service's Austin/San Antonio office.
- Camp Mabry has registered only one brief freeze on Dec. 15, with a low of 32°.
What they're saying: Allergist Allen Lieberman with Austin Family Allergy and Asthma expects a drawn-out allergy season due to the lack of a hard freeze or rain to clear the air.
- Tuesday's rain knocked back some of the pollen, but cedar counts remain moderate, per Austin Pollen, and Lieberman notes that the season will vary based on what happens in the upcoming month.
- While pollen season typically lasts until the beginning of February, "we've had some years" where it ends early because of a freeze," Lieberman tells Axios.
- "When it's this kind of weather — where there's not a major freeze or a whole lot of rain — it could go on for a few weeks in February."
Zoom in: The warm weather also impacts Central Texas plants.
- Andrea DeLong-Amaya, a horticulture educator at the Wildflower Center, tells Axios she's observed plants blooming that would normally be dormant in January, including bluebonnets and Jimsonweed.
- While early blooming isn't harmful on its own, DeLong-Amaya says problems can arise if warm conditions persist without a hard freeze because a late frost could damage tender, new growth.
Zoom out: Across the country, temperatures are rising. From 1970 to 2025, average winter temperatures rose in 98% of the 244 U.S. cities analyzed in a new report from research group Climate Central.
- In the cities with increases, winter temperatures rose nearly 4° on average.
- Austin's winters have warmed 4.2°.
What's next: Texas has a high chance of being hotter than average through March, per the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
- Expect milder temperatures in Austin this week, with highs in the low 60s and closer to January averages.