Texas Democrats circle Senate race
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Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios
As Texas Republicans prepare for a U.S. Senate primary brawl, Democrats see an opportunity to end a three-decade losing streak.
Why it matters: Democrats haven't won a statewide office since 1994, but Republicans' vulnerability — exposed by state Attorney General Ken Paxton's primary challenge against Sen. John Cornyn — has energized the party to take a shot at the seat.
State of play: Former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke, who has been making stops across the state to talk to voters over the last two months, hasn't ruled out the possibility of a run.
- "With so many of our neighbors hurting right now, I'll continue standing up for the people of Texas — whether that's holding these town hall meetings, organizing and registering voters, or running to serve and deliver for every person in this state," O'Rourke tells Axios in an email.
- U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, who ran unsuccessfully against Sen. Ted Cruz last year, threw his hat in the ring Tuesday, joining retired NASA astronaut Terry Virts on the Democratic ticket.
- Other potential contenders include U.S. Rep. Joaquin Castro of San Antonio and state Rep. James Talarico of Austin.
By the numbers: O'Rourke ran for Senate in 2018, losing to Cruz by less than 3 percentage points. Cruz defeated Allred last year by more than 8 points.
Zoom in: Democrats are betting that midterms could offer more favorable conditions, especially as Republican infighting and voter fatigue set in.
- A new poll from the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas found that Texans' approval of President Trump's job performance has fallen into net-negative territory for the first time in his second term, with 44% approving and 51% disapproving.
- The poll, conducted in early June, was of 1,200 registered voters and has a margin of error of +/- 2.83%.
What they're saying: University of Houston political scientist Brandon Rottinghaus tells Axios the race is shaping up to be Democrats' most promising shot in years — but only if they can close the enthusiasm gap and avoid fracturing during the primary.
- "This fast-forwards everyone's decisions," Rottinghaus says, following Allred's early entry.
- "There's an enthusiasm gap for Democrats that has to be very quickly narrowed — whether it's a candidate we've seen before or it's a candidate we haven't seen before. Democrats have to find somebody who can rally the base."
The bottom line: Rottinghaus says each potential candidate brings their own strengths and weaknesses, but they'll have to unify the party.
- "The real question is who the best contrast is to the Republican nominee."