The GOP's come to Jesus moment on Texas Senate race
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Sen. John Cornyn (left) and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Photos: Via Getty Images
A new private GOP poll is showing Republicans facing a growing problem in the Texas Senate race, the third such survey in just a month.
Why it matters: Republicans haven't lost a statewide race in Texas in more than three decades, but party officials concede they may need to spend millions to keep the seat this year.
- "The problem is nobody with the necessary gravitas seems to be willing to state the obvious: this is shaping up to be a f***ing disaster," a senior GOP Senate aide told Axios.
Zoom in: Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) trails state Attorney General Ken Paxton by 16 percentage points in a new survey conducted by veteran Republican pollster Chris Wilson. A copy was obtained by Axios.
- But Paxton trails a generic Democrat by three percentage points in a general election matchup.
- The establishment-aligned Cornyn performs far better than Paxton in a general election, leading a Democrat by seven percentage points.
- The survey results are similar to recent surveys conducted by the GOP-aligned Senate Leadership Fund super PAC and the American Opportunity Alliance, a network of influential Republican donors.
Between the lines: Paxton was impeached by the state House of Representatives in 2023 on bribery and corruption charges but was later acquitted by the state Senate.
- "If the goal is to maintain a GOP Senate majority and maximize Trump's down-ballot coattails in Texas, Paxton's nomination is a strategic liability," Wilson, who has advised Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), said in a memo accompanying the poll.
- "If Paxton wins the primary, the GOP is on a path to hand Democrats their best Senate opportunity in a generation," Wilson added.
Yes, but: Cornyn has more than $8 million in the bank between his campaign and super PAC accounts and has yet to begin unloading on Paxton, which Cornyn aides insist will tighten the primary contest.
- Cornyn has also assembled a seasoned team of operatives that includes senior Trump political advisers Chris LaCivita and Tony Fabrizio.
The bottom line: "The Cornyn campaign remains confident that once Texas GOP primary voters fully understand Ken Paxton's record of mismanagement, self-dealing and ethical failures, we will win the primary," said Cornyn spokesperson Matt Mackowiak.
- A Paxton representative declined to comment.
Methodology: The survey was commissioned by the Conservative Policy Project. The poll of 600 likely primary voters was conducted June 6-8, and the poll of 800 general election during the same time frame. The margin of error is +/-4% among primary voters and +-3.5% for general election voters.
