What a second Trump term could mean for Texas
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President-elect Trump's second term could have vast implications for Texas.
Why it matters: Texas leaders have long worked in lockstep with Trump over issues like the border and the economy. That loyalty could benefit some Texans and hurt others.
Here is what Trump's return to the White House could mean for Texas:
Deportation and border security: Texas is home to at least 2 million undocumented immigrants, per a 2024 federal report. If Trump follows through on his promise of large-scale deportations, labor markets and industries that rely on immigrant workers could be affected — not to mention the deportation's inevitable toll on families.
- A border policy of his first administration separated more than 5,000 children from their parents — and the practice was banned last year by a federal judge until 2031.
Washington clout: Several Texans could play critical roles in a second Trump White House. At the top of the list: Elon Musk, a Trump booster who maintains residences in Austin and South Texas and spent more than $130 million on the race, according to CFRA Research. Attorney General Ken Paxton and Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller, both close Trump allies, could join a new Trump administration.
- And Texas' senior U.S. senator, Republican John Cornyn, could very well be the next Senate Majority Leader.
Tax cuts: Corporations and the highest-income households — those in the 95th to 99th percentiles — stand to gain the most from Trump's tax cut pledges, per an analysis by Penn Wharton at the University of Pennsylvania.
Oil and gas: Trump has promised to boost domestic oil production and strip environmental regulations, a potential boon for Texas-based oil and gas companies, a pillar of the Texas economy.
Renewable energy: The booming wind and solar energy sector in Texas could take a hit if Trump successfully ends President Biden's signature Inflation Reduction Act, though Trump could face pushback from rural Republicans whose communities benefit from renewable subsidies.
Reality check: With Republicans having occupied every statewide political office since the late 1990s, the conservative agenda in Texas is already baked in.
- Texas already has one of the strictest abortion bans in the country and among the highest hurdles to Medicaid access, and it practices some of the loosest environmental policy enforcement, for example.
What they're saying: "We'll finally have a partner in the federal administration when it comes to border security again," Greg Sindelar, CEO of the conservative Austin-based Texas Public Policy Foundation, tells Axios.
The other side: "We know what to expect on some level because of the last Trump administration — restrictive policies for those seeking humanitarian relief … and the causing of chaos not only for mixed families with immigrants but for whole communities," Edna Yang, co-executive director of American Gateways, a nonprofit that provides legal advocacy for low-income immigrants in Central Texas, tells Axios.