As Harris invigorates Dems, Texas appears out of play
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Even as Vice President Kamala Harris has revived the hopes of Democratic voters nationally, Texas doesn't appear up for grabs.
Why it matters: A win in Texas, with its 40 Electoral College votes, is the holy grail of Democratic presidential politics.
State of play: Harris trails former President Trump by 5 percentage points among registered voters in Texas, per a University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll released Friday.
- That's tighter than in the project's June poll, when Trump led then-candidate Joe Biden by 7 points, at 46% to 39%.
But judging by their political advertising, neither side appears to think Texas is truly in play.
- Democrats and Republicans have combined to spend $145,000 on general election presidential political advertising in Texas, per an Axios review of data from Ad Impact, which tracks political advertising.
- In the swing state of Pennsylvania, by contrast, Democrats and Republicans have spent more than $205 million in ads in the runup to the general presidential election.
Flashback: Trump (52.06%) beat Biden (46.48%) in Texas in 2020, the narrowest margin for a Republican since 1996.
By the numbers: Republicans in Texas lately have cast more votes.
- In the 2024 primaries, Republicans cast 2.3 million ballots — and Democrats cast about 975,000.
Yes, but: Democrats had no real choice during the March primary — and by and large were not wildly enthusiastic about Biden's candidacy.
Zoom in: The same UT poll has U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz besting U.S. Rep. Colin Allred 44% to 36% in the other high-profile statewide race.
The big picture: Even as Democrats like to say demographics are destiny — suggesting an increasingly diverse, younger Texas population works in their favor — Republicans have proved resilient in retaining power.
- In 2022, Republicans running statewide generally won by double digits, led by Gov. Greg Abbott's trouncing of Beto O'Rourke.
- Even state Attorney General Ken Paxton, at the time running under a cloud of corruption allegations, beat his Democratic opponent by just shy of 10 points.
Meanwhile: Saying that he is defending the franchise, Paxton's office has undertaken investigations of Latino voting activists that Democrats have denounced as civil rights violations.
- Gov. Greg Abbott announced last month that Texas has removed more than 1 million people from the state's voter rolls as part of what he says is a "crackdown on illegal voting."
What they're saying: "Thus far the Harris campaign has not committed to staff in Texas, indicating that they will likely not make a big play for Texas," Katie Naranjo, the former chair of the Travis County Democratic Party, tells Axios.
- "While Harris is likely to make the race more competitive than it would have been had Biden been the Democratic nominee, I don't see Harris doing much better than Biden did in 2020, and thus a Trump victory in the mid-to-high single digits is the most likely scenario," Mark Jones, professor of political science at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy in Texas, told Newsweek last month.
In response to an inquiry about its Texas spending, the Harris campaign referred Axios to the Democratic National Committee, which said it has spent "upwards of $515,000" for organizing staff and infrastructure in the state during this election cycle.
- Axios' questions about Texas campaign money weren't immediately returned by the Republican National Committee or the Trump campaign.
What's next: Tuesday's debate. Harris is putting more states in play, but the faceoff with Trump is a big test for the Democrat.