Wet winter weather could be on Austin's horizon
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There's a decent chance of a wetter-than-normal winter in Austin this year, per the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's seasonal outlook.
Why it matters: Apart from this week's rains, it's been bone dry and super hot in Central Texas.
- Lakes Travis and Buchanan, the chief reservoirs for Central Texas, are now only 39% full.
Zoom in: Austin has a 40% chance of a wetter-than-average winter, per NOAA.
The big picture: This summer was the driest in 113 years in Austin, forcing many Central Texas communities to enact water restrictions.
- As the region's drought has dragged on, we've seen wildfires and a hit to the state's agricultural economy.
- Not to mention a deep-down feeling of misery, one that has a lot of Austinites talking about finally moving to some place like Oregon.
By the numbers: Our rainfall to date this year totals nearly 20 inches — more than 10 inches below our normal rainfall for the year at this time, per National Weather Service data.
Yes, but: Through yesterday, 3.47 inches of rain had fallen so far this October, outstripping the customary 3.17 inches during the period.
Zoom out: The combination of a strong El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean and record high global ocean temperatures are likely to shape the upcoming winter season in potentially unexpected ways.
How it works: El Niño winters in the U.S. tend to feature a split jet stream flow across the country.
- A southern branch carries storms from California and across the southern tier of the country, bringing above-average precipitation to areas from central California to Florida.
The intrigue: It's not yet clear how record warm global average temperatures will tip the scales in terms of U.S. air temperature and precipitation trends this winter.
- But they do raise the threat for some surprises, potentially in the form of extreme weather events.