Jun 15, 2022 - Business

Electric vehicle growth on uneven path

Electric vehicle growth outlook under current&nbsptrends
Data: BloombergNEF; Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals

Electric vehicle usage has soared in Austin and the rest of the country, but a new analysis found that the EV trajectory could be very different depending on whether governments demand net-zero emissions by 2050.

Why it matters: Austin plays an outsized role in EV production now that Tesla is headquartered in eastern Travis County.

Yes, but: A new EV outlook by BloombergNEF found that the "adoption gap" is clear even as sales surge in Europe, China and the U.S., writes Axios' Ben Geman.

  • Global passenger EV sales are slated to reach roughly 21 million in 2025, up from 6.6 million last year. Van and truck sales are also growing.

The big picture: Carbon regulations are key to the future of EVs and the post-2025 section of the just-released annual outlook explores global EV adoption under two broad scenarios.

  • The "economic transition scenario" is driven largely by "techno-economic trends and market forces" and assumes no new policies.
  • The other broad scenario is a pathway to reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 in the road transportation sector.

Of note: Tesla CEO Elon Musk warned of a "very tough quarter" as part of a recent email to employees, pointing to supply-chain issues and production challenges in China.

  • Analysts are forecasting Tesla will deliver about 296,000 cars this quarter, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, slightly lower than the quarterly record of 310,048 cars delivered in the first three months of the year.

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