Nov 8, 2018

The incumbents who lost in 2018

The most surprising — and least surprising — thing about the 2018 midterms is that we were aware of almost this exact outcome at the start of the cycle.

The big picture: The incumbents who lost were mostly predictable because they were the most vulnerable all long: House Republican incumbents in districts Hillary Clinton won in 2016 and red-state Democratic senators in Trump country.

Expand chart
Expand chart
Graphic: Aïda Amer/Axios

By the numbers: After the 2018 midterm elections, 20 House Republican incumbents lost their seats to a Democrat. Of those, 10 were in Clinton-won districts, while 9 were incumbents who Republicans had previously said were in competitive, coin-flip races.

And two were genuine surprises — Mia Love in Utah, who appeared headed for a loss, and Dan Donovan in New York, who has officially been defeated.

  • President Trump won the state of Utah by nearly 20 percentage points in 2016, and zero Republicans I talked to throughout the cycle ever mentioned Love's name when discussing which members were in danger.
  • Donovan was New York City's last House Republican in the state's 11th district, which Trump won by 10 percentage points in 2016 and which Cook Political Report rated as "lean Republican." Even Democrats were texting me on election night in disbelief of his loss.
  • Three red-state Democratic senators lost their re-election bid, and all voted against Brett Kavanaugh for the Supreme Court. Nevada Sen. Dean Heller was always considered the most vulnerable Republican senator. He had an on-again-off-again relationship with the president, and he was the only GOP senator defending a seat in a state that Clinton won.
  • Both Republican governors who lost were in for a reckoning as their states' politics and demographics have shifted, and they've both faced serious challengers in the past.

The bottom line: Trump focused most of his time on Republicans running for Senate and governor, leaving many House GOP incumbents out to dry in 2018. And national events (like the Supreme Court fight) were too big to overcome for Democrats in red states.

Go deeper:

Go deeper

The polarized pandemic election

A Trump supporter protests Pennsylvania's stay-at-home order, during a May 15 rally outside the Capitol in Harrisburg. Photo: Mark Makela/Getty Images

President Trump is going all-in on pushing for a rapid, robust return to normal life, creating a visual, visceral contrast with Joe Biden and other Democrats who are more reticent to rip the masks off.

The state of play: Business friends have been urging Trump from the beginning to keep the lockdowns short. He's listening more and more.

Tech's long hot summer of antitrust

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Google, Facebook and other tech giants face a summer of regulatory grilling as long-running investigations into potential anticompetitive practices likely come to a head.

The big picture: Probes into the power of Big Tech launched by federal and state authorities are turning a year old, and observers expect action in the form of formal lawsuits and potentially damning reports — even as the companies have become a lifeline for Americans during the pandemic lockdown.

Palantir CEO hits Silicon Valley "monoculture," may leave California

Palantir is "getting close" to a decision on whether to move the company out of California, CEO Alex Karp said in an interview for "Axios on HBO."

The state of play: "We haven't picked a place yet, but it's going to be closer to the East Coast than the West Coast. ... If I had to guess, I would guess something like Colorado."