Get the latest market trends in your inbox

Stay on top of the latest market trends and economic insights with the Axios Markets newsletter. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Denver news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Des Moines news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Minneapolis-St. Paul news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Minneapolis-St. Paul

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tampa-St. Petersburg news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa-St. Petersburg

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Image: Alex Wong / Getty Images

How can you have a government shutdown when one party controls both Congress and the White House? If it happens, it will be because Republicans couldn't keep key factions of their party happy or curry favor with Democrats over immigration — not to mention tweets undermining the negotiations from President Trump himself.

The bottom line: In order to pass the continuing resolution (CR) that will fund the government past its Friday deadline, GOP leadership must win over two key contingents: Senate Democrats and members of the House Freedom Caucus. Right now, it's hard to see the path that would allow them to satisfy both.

The Senate

Without John McCain, who is still recovering from cancer treatment, the Senate needs every Republican and at least 10 Democrats/Independents to pass the CR. At the moment, there's no sign that they have either.

Republicans to watch:

  • Lindsey Graham, who has already declared he's a no without an immigration overhaul and military funding.
  • Mike Rounds, who voiced his opposition both for defense reasons and his desire for the government to stop operating on short-term CRs.
  • Mike Lee and Rand Paul, who opposed the last stopgap bill in December.

What Democrats are saying:

  • Chuck Schumer told reporters an "overwhelming number" of Democrats would oppose a bill without a DACA fix.
  • It appears that zero Dems who voted "no" in December are going to vote "yes," but there are Dems who previously voted "yes" that will flip to "no," an aide told Axios.
The House

Speaker Paul Ryan is expecting to pass the bill without little to no support from House Dems, who likely won't vote yes without a DACA fix.

Republicans to watch:

  • The Freedom Caucus, chaired by Mark Meadows, who said he wants tighter caps on non-defense spending, more funding for military pay raises and clarity on immigration.
  • If all three dozen members of the Freedom Caucus vote "no," the bill will not have the Republican support to pass.

Democrats to watch:

  • Virginia Rep. Gerry Connolly, who represents a large number of federal workers and has voiced his support for the bill.
  • Representatives from the 16 states that are running out of CHIP funding.

Where Trump stands: The White House says he supports the House CR.

What's next: Facing a tough vote count that’s currently well short, Bloomberg reports that several Senate Republicans said a stopgap bill to fund the government for just a few days is now under discussion. This is not coming from Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, however, who is talking about keeping the Senate in session and taking repeated votes to put pressure on the Democrats, per Politico.

Go deeper

Updated 2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Health: WHO: AstraZeneca vaccine must be evaluated on "more than a press release."
  2. Politics: McConnell temporarily halts in-person lunches for GOP caucus.
  3. Economy: Safety nets to disappear in DecemberAmazon hires 1,400 workers a day throughout pandemic.
  4. Education: U.S. public school enrollment drops as pandemic persists.
  5. Cities: Surge in cases forces San Francisco to impose curfew — Los Angeles County issues stay-at-home order, limits gatherings.
  6. Sports: NFL bans in-person team activities Monday, Tuesday due to COVID-19 surge — NBA announces new coronavirus protocols.
  7. World: London police arrest more than 150 during anti-lockdown protests — Thailand, Philippines sign deal with AstraZeneca for vaccine.

Tony Hsieh, longtime Zappos CEO, dies at 46

Tony Hsieh. Photo: FilmMagic/FilmMagic

Tony Hsieh, the longtime ex-chief executive of Zappos, died on Friday after being injured in a house fire, his lawyer told the Las Vegas Review-Journal. He was 46.

The big picture: Hsieh was known for his unique approach to management, and following the 2008 recession his ongoing investment and efforts to revitalize the downtown Las Vegas area.

Dan Primack, author of Pro Rata
14 hours ago - Economy & Business

The unicorn stampede is coming

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

Airbnb and DoorDash plan to go public in the next few weeks, capping off a very busy year for IPOs.

What's next: You ain't seen nothing yet.