Nov 21, 2019

Goldman Sachs sees break in the clouds in latest economic forecast

Goldman Sachs' New York headquarters. Photo: Spencer Platt/Getty Images

"Slightly better growth, limited recession risk and friendly monetary policy should provide a decent background for financial markets in the early part of 2020," Goldman Sachs Economics Research says in a 21-page forecast by Jan Hatzius, Daan Struyven and Ronnie Walker.

The big picture: "We expect the global growth slowdown that began in early 2018 to end soon, in response to easier financial conditions and an end to the trade escalation," the authors say.

Yes, but: "However, concerns about the impact of higher corporate taxes on profits could rise in the run-up to the U.S. presidential election. Even aside from politics, rising wage growth looks set to reduce profit margins over the next several years."

Axios thought bubble: If you're the Trump campaign, you heart this forecast.

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Coronavirus could lower GDP by $15.7 trillion

Reproduced from Congressional Budget Office; Chart: Axios Visuals

The CBO released projections on Monday for U.S. nominal GDP to be lower by $15.7 trillion over the next decade than its estimate in January as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.

What they're saying: It predicts that when adjusted for inflation GDP will be $7.9 trillion lower over the next decade and down by $790 billion in the second quarter of this year — a 37.7% quarterly contraction.

14 mins ago - Sports

The sports teams that have issued statements on George Floyd protests

Data: Twitter; Graphic: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

74 of 123 teams (60%) across the big four American sports leagues issued statements regarding George Floyd's murder and the ensuing nationwide protests as of 12 a.m. ET today.

Why it matters: Teams should be judged by their actions more than their words, but seeing who did and did not acknowledge the biggest story in America gives a sense of what each franchise believes its role — and the role of sports more broadly — should be at a time like this.

Updated 55 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 7 a.m. ET: 6,289,259 — Total deaths: 375,987 — Total recoveries — 2,706,820Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 7 a.m. ET: 1,811,277 — Total deaths: 105,147 — Total recoveries: 458,231 — Total tested: 17,340,682Map.
  3. Public health: Nearly 26,000 coronavirus deaths in nursing homes have been reported to federal health officials —Coronavirus looms over George Floyd protests across the country.
  4. Federal government: Trump lashes out at governors, calls for National Guard to "dominate" streets.
  5. World: Former FDA commissioner says "this is not the time" to cut ties with WHO.
  6. 🎧 Podcast: The virus didn't go away.