Nov 21, 2019

Goldman Sachs sees break in the clouds in latest economic forecast

Goldman Sachs' New York headquarters. Photo: Spencer Platt/Getty Images

"Slightly better growth, limited recession risk and friendly monetary policy should provide a decent background for financial markets in the early part of 2020," Goldman Sachs Economics Research says in a 21-page forecast by Jan Hatzius, Daan Struyven and Ronnie Walker.

The big picture: "We expect the global growth slowdown that began in early 2018 to end soon, in response to easier financial conditions and an end to the trade escalation," the authors say.

Yes, but: "However, concerns about the impact of higher corporate taxes on profits could rise in the run-up to the U.S. presidential election. Even aside from politics, rising wage growth looks set to reduce profit margins over the next several years."

Axios thought bubble: If you're the Trump campaign, you heart this forecast.

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Courtenay Brown

U.S. recession risk fades

S&P Global Ratings says there is now a 30% chance the U.S. economy enters a recession in the next 12 months — scaling back the 35% recession risk it forecast in August.

Why it matters: A slew of Wall Street economists and analysts now see the outlook for the U.S. economy as rosier than a few months ago. That sentiment is reflected in the stock market, which closed at another record high yesterday.

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Keep ReadingNov 26, 2019

Dion Rabouin

Asset managers urge caution in 2020

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

Investors can expect higher stock prices but also a lot of potential potholes in 2020, according to the investment forecasts of major asset managers.

What they're saying: "[I]n 2020 the margin for error — and opportunity — will likely be as small as it’s been in a very long time," top strategists at State Street Global Advisors wrote in their 2020 outlook.

Go deeperDec 12, 2019

Dion Rabouin

Fund managers predict strong growth next year for emerging markets

Data: Investing.com; Chart: Axios Visuals

After years of U.S. outperformance, fund managers say they expect American assets to deliver gains in line with international markets in 2020.

The big picture: Firms including BlackRock, BofA and JPMorgan say they are particularly bullish on emerging market equities, which have been unloved in 2019.

Go deeperDec 12, 2019