Sign up for our daily briefing

Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Stay on top of the latest market trends

Subscribe to Axios Markets for the latest market trends and economic insights. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sports news worthy of your time

Binge on the stats and stories that drive the sports world with Axios Sports. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tech news worthy of your time

Get our smart take on technology from the Valley and D.C. with Axios Login. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Get the inside stories

Get an insider's guide to the new White House with Axios Sneak Peek. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Denver news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Des Moines news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Twin Cities news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Tampa Bay news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Charlotte news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!
Expand chart
Data: CME FedWatch Tool; Note: Data as of Nov. 13 at 5:44pm CT; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

Fed chair Jerome Powell again laid out his rose-colored view of the U.S. economy on Wednesday, telling the congressional Joint Economic Committee that he sees the U.S. as “being in a good place." He reiterated that a "material reassessment" of the economic outlook would be required for the Fed to raise or cut interest rates any time soon.

Why it matters: Powell's testimony was the cherry on top of the good news sundae that has sent traders' appetite for risk soaring over the last two weeks, and priced out expectations for further U.S. interest rate cuts through the end of next year.

What we're hearing: "It's amazing the collective wisdom of the market," says Gautam Khanna, senior portfolio manager at BNY Mellon, which manages at least $1.3 trillion in assets.

  • When the Fed raised rates in December, "the market said the Fed was making a mistake. 'Europe is slowing, we're facing a trade war, there's Brexit,' and it reacted. The Fed has since [cut interest rates three times] and the market is happy with that," Khanna tells Axios.

Powell has maintained this rosy outlook all along, "but the market needed to see the rate cuts," Lale Akoner, BNY Mellon's global market strategist, adds.

  • "Now that the market has received those rate cuts, financial conditions have eased, which will avoid a hard crash" for the economy.

Watch this space: Akoner says she expects the Fed to remain on pause through the end of next year and for U.S. Treasury yields to rise by around 100 basis points in the near future.

Between the lines: Fed fund futures pricing has shown investors consistently betting the economy would deteriorate this year and into 2020, forcing the Fed to continue to cut rates at least two more times by June.

  • Over the past month the market has reversed those bets, and now is pricing in a less than 5% chance of a cut before year-end and less than a 50% chance of a rate cut by December 2020.

Quick take: “Looking ahead, my colleagues and I see a sustained expansion of economic activity, a strong labor market, and inflation near our symmetric 2% objective as most likely,” Powell told the congressional committee Wednesday.

  • "This favorable baseline partly reflects the policy adjustments that we have made to provide support for the economy.”

What's next: Investors will be closely watching U.S. economic data to see if that is the case.

Go deeper: Recession fears have vanished

Go deeper

1 hour ago - Health

J&J CEO "absolutely" confident in vaccine distribution goals

Johnson & Johnson CEO Alex Gorsky said Monday that he is "absolutely" confident that the company will be able to meet its distribution goals, which include 100 million doses by June and up to a billion by the end of 2021.

Driving the news: J&J is already in the process of shipping 3.9 million doses this week, just days after the FDA issued an emergency use authorization for the one-shot vaccine. Gorsky said he expects vaccines to be administered to Americans "literally within the next 24 to 48 hours."

Dion Rabouin, author of Markets
2 hours ago - Economy & Business

Clash of the central bankers

Photo Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios. Photos: Bloomberg, Samuel Corum (Stringer)/Getty Images

While Fed chair Jerome Powell is brushing off the seismic rise in government bond yields and a corresponding decline in stock prices, a group of central bankers in the Pacific are starting to take action.

Driving the news: Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda told parliament on Friday the BOJ would not allow yields on government debt to continue rising further above the BOJ's 0% target.

Biden expresses support for Amazon workers' union vote in Alabama

Photo: Joe Raedle/Getty Images

President Biden expressed support for a union vote by Amazon warehouse workers in Alabama in a two-minute video posted on Twitter Sunday, though he did not name the tech giant specifically.

Why it matters: A vote by workers at the Bessemer, Ala., warehouse to join the Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union would make the facility the first Amazon warehouse to unionize in the U.S., per NPR. The election will run through March 29.