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National Hurricane Center's 5-day forecast from Sept. 8, 2018 for Hurricane Florence. Image: NHC

When it comes to hurricane track forecasts, the one that the National Hurricane Center issued for Hurricane Florence at 11 p.m. on September 8 may go down in history as the most accurate 5-day forecast they've ever issued — just 2 miles off target in the center of the "cone of uncertainty."

Why it matters: The average 5-day error is closer to 250 miles, to put that in perspective. The forecast provided residents of the Carolinas with 5 days of lead time to prepare for the storm, and alerted governors and emergency managers to start moving assets into position to respond to the storm.

Between the lines: Statistically, hurricane track forecasts have been steadily improving over time as more powerful computer models come online and hurricane forecasters utilize their research aircraft and other tools to determine where a storm is most likely to go. In the case of Hurricane Florence, even though the storm took a track unlike any other such storm in history, the NHC still accurately forecast it.

Yes, but: The fact that this prediction was off by just 2 miles doesn't mean that future track forecasts should be taken as gospel. Two-thirds of the time, the NHC's 5-day forecast for a hurricane's track is 198 nautical miles, or 227 miles, off target.

The bottom line: Hurricane Florence's forecast was a major success story that isn't likely to be replicated with every subsequent storm. However, the trend in track errors is downward with each passing year, so someday, perhaps every storm will be forecast this accurately.

Go deeper:

Go deeper

In photos: Twin Cities on edge after Daunte Wright shooting

Demonstrators shout "Don't shoot" at the police after curfew on April 12 as they protest the death of Daunte Wright, who was shot and killed by a police officer in Brooklyn Center, Minnesota, a day earlier. Photo: Kerem Yucel/AFP via Getty Images

There were tense scenes in the Twin Cities suburb of Brooklyn Center Monday night, after demonstrators defied a 7 p.m. curfew to protest for a second night the fatal police shooting of Daunte Wright.

The big picture: The curfew was announced following a night of protests and unrest over the killing of Wright, 20, during a traffic stop Sunday. Following peaceful protests and a daytime vigil, police again deployed tear gas during clashes with protesters Monday night, according to reporters on the scene.

In photos: Life along the U.S.-Mexico border

Children at the border of the Puerto de Anapra colonia of Ciudad Juárez, Mexico, hang on a border fence and look to Sunland Park, N.M. Photo: Russell Contreras/Axios

Axios traveled to McAllen and El Paso, Texas, and Ciudad Juárez, Mexico, to see how the communities are responding to an increase of migrants from Central America.

Of note: The region in South and West Texas are among the poorest in the nation and rarely are the regions covered in depth beyond the soundbites and press conference. Axios reporters Stef Kight and Russell Contreras walked the streets of McAllen, El Paso, Texas, and Ciudad Juárez to record images that struck them.

Updated 2 hours ago - Axios Twin Cities

Police: Officer who shot Daunte Wright accidentally pulled gun instead of Taser

The officer who fatally shot Daunte Wright, a 20-year-old Black man, outside Minneapolis Sunday appeared to have inadvertently pulled out her gun instead of a Taser, police said.

What's new: Officials on Monday night identified the officer involved in the shooting as Kim Potter, who has been with the Brooklyn Center Police Department for 26 years.