Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Sen. Elizabeth Warren's newly released plan to pay for Medicare for All leaves the middle class financially better off than they are today, but it's not true to say that they won't pay for it at all, experts say.

Between the lines: Employers will directly pay for Medicare for All, and economists predict that this will get passed onto workers through reduced wages — just as employers' costs for private health insurance are passed on today.

Warren's plan, released this morning, would take aggressive health care cost containment measures, lowering its price tag to the federal government.

  • But she still needs to raise $20.5 trillion over a decade — which she says she does with "not one penny in middle-class tax increases."

Reality check: This becomes an issue of semantics. It's true that the middle class won't directly pay any new taxes. And they won't have to pay the individual premiums and out-of-pocket costs that they pay now.

  • But Warren would redirect the trillions of dollars projected to be spent by employers on private health insurance into Medicare for All contributions — which would be collected as taxes.
  • These employers currently pay a portion of workers' premiums, but it's widely assumed by economists that workers ultimately pay for these costs through lower wages.
  • So whether employers are paying a premium contribution or a tax — and Warren's plan is designed for the shift to slightly save money for employers — it's assumed that employees ultimately bear the cost.
  • However, the $11 trillion over 10 years that Americans are expected to pay in individual premium contributions and out-of-pocket spending would disappear, leaving the middle class ultimately better off.

Yes, but: There's plenty of skepticism about Warren's math and some of her revenue streams.

  • And whether her plan would actually improve the health care system — especially in the way she would squeeze various payments to health care industries — is another question. Subscribe to Axios Vitals for more on that on Monday.

Go deeper: Warren releases Medicare for All plan

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Trump's Tucker mind-meld

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Roy Rochlin/Getty Images and BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images

If you want to understand the rhetorical roots of Trump's Independence Day speech at Mount Rushmore, go back and watch Tucker Carlson's monologues for the past six weeks.

Between the lines: Trump — or rather his speechwriter Stephen Miller — framed the president's opposition to the Black Lives Matter protest movement using the same imagery Carlson has been laying out night after night on Fox.

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Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 6 p.m. ET: 11,366,145 — Total deaths: 532,644 — Total recoveries — 6,154,138Map.
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  3. States: Photos of America's pandemic July 4 ICU beds in Arizona hot spot near capacity — Houston mayor warns about hospitals
  4. Public health: U.S. coronavirus infections hit record highs for 3 straight days.
  5. Politics: Former Trump official Tom Bossert says face masks “are not enough”
  6. World: Mexican leaders call for tighter border control as infections rise in U.S.
  7. Sports: Sports return stalked by coronavirus
  8. 1 📽 thing: Drive-in movie theaters are making a comeback.

Bolton's hidden aftershocks

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

The news media has largely moved on, but foreign government officials remain fixated on John Bolton's memoir, "The Room Where It Happened."

Why it matters: Bolton's detailed inside-the-Oval revelations have raised the blood pressure of allies who were already stressed about President Trump's unreliability.