Photo: Nicholas Kamm/AFP via Getty Images

The S&P 500 has had a return of over 50% during President Trump's first three years in office, more than doubling the average return of 23% at the same point in a presidential term since 1928, CNBC reports.

The big picture: The market, which hit record highs across the three major indices, got a sustained lift in 2019 after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell lowered interest rates three times, the first such moves since the end of the financial crisis.

  • The big gains under Trump come despite a volatile 2018 that saw the S&P drop 6.2%, thanks to the uncertainty of the U.S.-China trade war.
  • And by another market's measure, there were worrying signals: the yield curve inverted this year, a phenomenon in the bond market known to precede recessions.

Of note: The S&P's 28.6% growth during Trump's third year lagged behind former President Barack Obama's 32% during his third year, which came as the economy recovered from the financial crisis.

What to watch: The S&P increases two-thirds of the time in a president's fourth year — with an average gain of 5.2%.

  • For Trump, any success will likely depend on how trade talks with China play out — and whether his "phase one" trade deal can hold.
  • As part of some of the known terms of that deal, China agreed to buy billions of dollars of U.S. agricultural products and Trump agreed to cancel pending tariff increases.

Go deeper ... Trump: "The reason our stock market is so successful is because of me"

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Scoop: Lawmakers tee up hearing with academics ahead of antitrust report

Big Tech CEOs testify before the House Judiciary antitrust panel in June. Photo: Mandel Ngan/Pool/AFP via Getty Images.

Mostly academics will be testifying at Thursday's House Judiciary antitrust subcommittee hearing, which will reveal where its year-long investigation into big tech and competition is going, a source familiar with the matter told Axios.

Why it matters: The hearing is the next step following testimony from Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg, Google's Sundar Pichai, Amazon's Jeff Bezos and Apple's Tim Cook before the committee in July. A showing of academics and think-tank types signals the lawmakers are still sorting out competition theories and possible legislative fixes to perceived antitrust abuses.

Biden releases 2019 tax returns ahead of debate

Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images

Joe Biden's campaign released his 2019 tax returns on Tuesday, showing that he and his wife, Jill, paid nearly $300,000 in federal taxes last year.

Why it matters: The release, timed just hours before the first presidential debate, comes days after a bombshell New York Times report said that President Trump paid only $750 in federal taxes in 2016 and 2017. Biden's team is hoping to make the tax contrast a sticking point during their showdown.

Updated 2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 2:15 p.m. ET: 33,454,037 — Total deaths: 1,003,571 — Total recoveries: 23,204,219Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 2:15 p.m. ET: 7,165,067 — Total deaths: 205,476 — Total recoveries: 2,794,608 — Total tests: 102,342,416Map.
  3. Health: Americans won't take Trump's word on the vaccine, Axios-Ipsos poll finds.
  4. States: NYC's coronavirus positivity rate spikes to highest since June.
  5. Sports: Tennessee Titans close facility amid NFL's first coronavirus outbreak.
  6. World: U.K. beats previous record for new coronavirus cases.