Jul 23, 2020 - Politics & Policy

Cook Political Report says Democrats are favored to reclaim Senate

Jacob Knutson

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on July 21. Photo: Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images

Cook Political Report on Thursday moved its outlook to a net gain of five to seven Senate seats for Democrats, and now says Democrats are slightly favored to win the Senate majority.

Why it matters: Cook currently forecasts that President Trump's troubles could affect Republicans down the ballot, calling the incumbent president the "decided underdog against former Vice President Joe Biden."

The state of play: Democrats must win at least four Senate seats to claim the majority.

Cook moved the race in Arizona between Sen. Martha McSally (R) and former astronaut Mark Kelly (D) from "toss up" to leaning Democratic in its July rating.
It also moved the races in Iowa between Sen. Joni Ernst (R) and Theresa Greenfield (D) and Georgia between Sen. David Perdue and Jon Ossoff from leaning Republican to toss-ups.
It moved Minnesota's and New Mexico's races from likely Democratic to solidly Democratic.

The big picture: Cook also shifted its outlook for 20 House races toward Democrats last week, signaling that Democrats stand to widen their lead in the House.

Republicans need to pick up 18 seats to win the House back in 2020, but polling is firmly moving against that hope.
Meanwhile, Trump is trailing Biden in multiple state polls less than four months before November's election.

Go deeper: Poll shows Biden beating Trump by 13 points in Florida

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Cook Political Report says Democrats are favored to reclaim Senate

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