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Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

The debate was a mess as moderator Chris Wallace struggled with President Trump's interruptions. But let's analyze the climate parts anyway without normalizing the whole thing.

Why it matters: The contest provided a collision over the topic between Trump and Joe Biden, and underscored the two candidates' immense differences.

Here are a few takeaways...

1. Surprise! Climate wasn't on the list of topics Wallace planned, and his multiple questions, beginning about 75 minutes in, provided a lengthy exchange.

2. Biden has a complicated relationship with the climate left. The former VP said "the Green New Deal is not my plan" and "I don't support the Green New Deal."

  • But his online climate platform unveiled last year called the GND a "crucial framework for meeting the climate challenges we face" without endorsing it outright.
  • And more recent changes have moved his plan closer to what activists want, notably a 2035 target for reaching 100% carbon-free power and a proposal of $2 trillion in climate investments over his first four years.
  • Still, there are limits. For instance, Biden recently emphasized that he's not seeking to ban fracking.
  • It's part of a delicate balance to keep his coalition together, and key GND backers are willing to give him some space for now.

3. Trump still rejects consensus science. Asked whether human-induced emissions fuel climate change, Trump said, "I think a lot of things do, but I think to an extent, yes."

  • That's a tad different than his past rejection of global warming as a hoax. But still at odds with the scientific consensus that humans are the dominant driver of ongoing warming.
  • Anyway, the slight change in posture didn't come with a pivot away from rolling back climate rules or any policy shifts (with a small asterisk I'll get to next).

4. Trump muddied his position on EVs. Trump said "I think I’m all for electric cars" and "I’ve given big incentives for electric cars."

  • In fact, the White House has previously proposed ending tax credits for EV purchases, but Congress has not gone along.

5. Trump made other questionable or inaccurate statements. For instance, he claimed the Green New Deal would cost $100 trillion.

  • The conservative group American Action Forum has offered an estimate of up to $93 trillion over 10 years (while acknowledging it's steeped in uncertainty).
  • Useful long-term estimates are impossible because the GND is a vague, sweeping set of concepts, not a piece of legislation.

6. Biden took too much credit for renewable cost declines. Touting the Obama-era stimulus he helped oversee, Biden said he was able to "bring down the cost of renewable energy to cheaper than, or as cheap as, coal and gas and oil."

  • In truth a whole suite of forces — including, but not limited to, federal investments in the stimulus and elsewhere — have led to huge cost declines over the last decade.

One interesting moment wasn't in the climate section.

Driving the news: Earlier in the debate, Biden flatly refused to say whether he supports ending the Senate filibuster.

Why it matters: If he wins and Democrats gain the Senate, ending the super-majority requirement would lower the immense hurdles in front of energy and climate legislation to some degree.

Go deeper

The only Trump foreign policy Biden wants to keep

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Joe Biden disagrees with most of President Trump's foreign policy initiatives, but several of his advisers tell Axios that there is one he plans to keep: the Abraham Accords.

Why it matters: Continuing to push the Abraham Accords — the biblical branding the administration has given to the individual normalization agreements between Israel and Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates — could help Biden build positive relationships with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other leaders in the Persian Gulf.

Caitlin Owens, author of Vitals
11 mins ago - Health

The next generation of coronavirus vaccines won't come as quickly

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

A flood of cash from Operation Warp Speed helped coax a slew of biotech companies into the race for a coronavirus vaccine, but the incentives to keep working on new competitors won't be nearly as strong.

Why it matters: That initial flood of cash worked — it delivered multiple, highly effective vaccines in record time. In other disease areas, though, second- and third-generation vaccines usually become the dominant products. And the first COVID-19 vaccines aren't necessarily a great fit for the whole world.

The Biden climate doctrine emerges at summit

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

President Biden's climate summit is highlighting a White House approach that blends diplomacy, executive power, salesmanship and a few threats too.

  • Here are a few pillars of the emerging Biden doctrine.