Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is projecting that by June 1, the U.S. will see a surge in daily new coronavirus cases from about 25,000 to 200,000, and an increase in daily deaths from about 1,750 to about 3,000, according to an internal document obtained by the New York Times.

Why it matters: The report comes as the federal government and individual states have been working to reopen parts of the economy after a seven-week shutdown.

  • The model was created by Johns Hopkins professor Justin Lessler, who said it was a range of possibilities, according to WashPost. "I had no role in the process by which that was presented and shown ... it was not in any way intended to be a forecast."
    • “There are reopening scenarios where it could get out of control very quickly."
  • Former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb warned on CBS Sunday that mitigation hasn't worked "as well as we expected" and that the U.S. could see "persistent spread" of the virus through the summer.
  • At a Fox News town hall on Sunday, meanwhile, President Trump said the coronavirus death toll could reach 100,000 — revising his projection upward after forecasting last month that it could be as low as 50,000.
Government internal documents obtained by the New York Times.
Government internal documents obtained by the New York Times.

The big picture: The projections in the report underscore the fear that relaxing social distancing guidelines could put the U.S. back where it was in mid-March, when the surge in new cases threatened to overwhelm the health care system in some areas.

  • Currently, the U.S. is experiencing about 1,750 deaths and about 25,000 confirmed new cases per day, with little decline throughout the month of April despite mitigation practices.
  • "There remains a large number of counties whose burden continues to grow," the report warns.
  • Some urban areas like New York City and Detroit have seen improvement, but the modeling suggests other cities like Los Angeles and Chicago will see a surge in cases.

What they're saying: The CDC did not immediately respond to a request for comment. White House spokesperson Judd Deere provided the following statement:

“This is not a White House document nor has it been presented to the Coronavirus Task Force or gone through interagency vetting. This data is not reflective of any of the modeling done by the task force or data that the task force has analyzed. The President’s phased guidelines to open up America again are a scientific driven approach that the top health and infectious disease experts in the federal government agreed with. The health of the American people remains President Trump’s top priority and that will continue as we monitor the efforts by states to ease restrictions.”

Read the full report.

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World coronavirus updates

Data: The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins; Map: Axios Visuals

Australian officials in Victoria announced Sunday 17 more deaths from COVID-19 — a new state and national record.

The big picture: Australia was on track to suppress the novel coronavirus in May, but cases have been spiking in Victoria in recent weeks, where a state of disaster was declared last week, enabling officials to introduce restrictions including a night-time curfew in state capital Melbourne.

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Massachusetts pauses reopening after uptick in coronavirus cases

Gov. Charlie Baker at Boston MedFlight Headquarters on Aug. 4. Photo: David L. Ryan/The Boston Globe via Getty Images

Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker announced Friday that the state's second phase of reopening is "postponed indefinitely" in response to a modest increase in coronavirus cases.

The big picture: The state is reporting more COVID-19 deaths than most others across the U.S. outside of domestic epicenters like California, or previous hotspots including New Jersey and New York, per a New York Times database.

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Africa records over 1 million coronavirus cases

A health worker in Nigeria checks students' temperatures on August 4. Photo: Pius Utomi Ekepei/AFP via Getty Images

African countries collectively surpassed 1 million confirmed coronavirus cases this week, according to Johns Hopkins University data.

Why it matters: Some health experts believe that the true number of COVID-19 cases among African countries is higher than that figure due to a lack of testing, and fear that undetected cases could overload some of the world’s weakest health systems, according to AP.