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Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

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Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is projecting that by June 1, the U.S. will see a surge in daily new coronavirus cases from about 25,000 to 200,000, and an increase in daily deaths from about 1,750 to about 3,000, according to an internal document obtained by the New York Times.

Why it matters: The report comes as the federal government and individual states have been working to reopen parts of the economy after a seven-week shutdown.

  • The model was created by Johns Hopkins professor Justin Lessler, who said it was a range of possibilities, according to WashPost. "I had no role in the process by which that was presented and shown ... it was not in any way intended to be a forecast."
    • “There are reopening scenarios where it could get out of control very quickly."
  • Former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb warned on CBS Sunday that mitigation hasn't worked "as well as we expected" and that the U.S. could see "persistent spread" of the virus through the summer.
  • At a Fox News town hall on Sunday, meanwhile, President Trump said the coronavirus death toll could reach 100,000 — revising his projection upward after forecasting last month that it could be as low as 50,000.
Government internal documents obtained by the New York Times.
Government internal documents obtained by the New York Times.

The big picture: The projections in the report underscore the fear that relaxing social distancing guidelines could put the U.S. back where it was in mid-March, when the surge in new cases threatened to overwhelm the health care system in some areas.

  • Currently, the U.S. is experiencing about 1,750 deaths and about 25,000 confirmed new cases per day, with little decline throughout the month of April despite mitigation practices.
  • "There remains a large number of counties whose burden continues to grow," the report warns.
  • Some urban areas like New York City and Detroit have seen improvement, but the modeling suggests other cities like Los Angeles and Chicago will see a surge in cases.

What they're saying: The CDC did not immediately respond to a request for comment. White House spokesperson Judd Deere provided the following statement:

“This is not a White House document nor has it been presented to the Coronavirus Task Force or gone through interagency vetting. This data is not reflective of any of the modeling done by the task force or data that the task force has analyzed. The President’s phased guidelines to open up America again are a scientific driven approach that the top health and infectious disease experts in the federal government agreed with. The health of the American people remains President Trump’s top priority and that will continue as we monitor the efforts by states to ease restrictions.”

Read the full report.

Go deeper: Trump claims U.S. will have coronavirus vaccine by end of 2020

Go deeper

Updated Oct 7, 2020 - Health

World coronavirus updates

Expand chart
Data: The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins; Map: Axios Visuals

New Zealand now has active no coronavirus cases in the community after the final six people linked to the Auckland cluster recovered, the country's Health Ministry confirmed in an email Wednesday.

The big picture: The country's second outbreak won't officially be declared closed until there have been "no new cases for two incubation periods," the ministry said. Auckland will join the rest of NZ in enjoying no domestic restrictions from late Wednesday, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said, declaring that NZ had "beat the virus again."

Aug 11, 2020 - Health

Georgia reports 137 coronavirus deaths, setting new daily record

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp puts on a mask after speaking at a press conference. Photo: Elijah Nouvelage/Getty Images

A record 137 people have died from the coronavirus in Georgia on Tuesday, surpassing the state's record from last week, according to the Georgia Health Department.

By the numbers: Georgia is one of several states in the South that saw spikes in daily deaths on Tuesday, including Florida which had a record 276 deaths. Alabama and Tennessee recorded their second-highest daily death tolls at 50 and 38, respectively.

Updated 17 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

  1. Vaccines: Pfizer CEO says company will submit data for children's vaccine to FDA in "days" — The new booster dilemma — U.S. has enough COVID vaccines to meet demand for kids, boosters.
  2. Health: New York vaccine mandate for state health workers goes into effect — The antivirals are (hopefully) coming — Long COVID: A disabling disease — Montana VA medical center to treat non-veterans amid COVID surge.
  3. Politics: Federal judge upholds Cincinnati health care system's COVID vaccine mandate — Bolsonaro isolating after health minister tests positive at UN summit.
  4. Education: UT docs show faculty frustration amid Gov. Abbott's latest COVID orders — Health care workers and teachers caught up in booster confusion.
  5. Variant tracker: Where different strains are spreading.

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